DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-1561-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84966359542
论文题名: Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into the Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, China
作者: Zheng J ; , Sun G ; , Li W ; , Yu X ; , Zhang C ; , Gong Y ; , Tu L
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 4 起始页码: 1561
结束页码: 1572
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Climatology
; Evapotranspiration
; Hydrology
; Land use
; Rain
; Remote sensing
; Reservoirs (water)
; Soil conservation
; Stream flow
; Surface waters
; Uncertainty analysis
; Vegetation
; Water conservation
; Water management
; Water supply
; Watersheds
; Actual evapotranspiration
; Environmental variables
; Miyun reservoir , Beijing , China
; Potential evapotranspiration
; Rainfall-runoff modeling
; Surface water sources
; Vegetation management
; Watershed management
; Climate change
; climate change
; evapotranspiration
; hydrometeorology
; inflow
; land use change
; potential evapotranspiration
; rainfall-runoff modeling
; remote sensing
; reservoir
; streamflow
; uncertainty analysis
; water demand
; water supply
; watershed
; Beijing [China]
; China
; Miyun Reservoir
英文摘要: The Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in the Miyun Reservoir are debatable under a non-stationary climate in the past 4 decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate variability to the decreasing inflow into the Miyun Reservoir during 1961-2008. Different from previous studies on this watershed, we used a comprehensive approach to quantify the timing of changes in hydrology and associated environmental variables using the long-term historical hydrometeorology and remote-sensing-based land use records. To effectively quantify the different impacts of the climate variation and land use change on streamflow during different subperiods, an annual water balance model (AWB), the climate elasticity model (CEM), and a rainfall-runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant (p <0.01) decrease in annual streamflow, a significant positive trend in annual potential evapotranspiration (p <0.01), and an insignificant (p >0.1) negative trend in annual precipitation during 1961-2008. We identified two streamflow breakpoints, 1983 and 1999, by the sequential Mann-Kendall test and double-mass curve. Climate variability alone did not explain the decrease in inflow to the Miyun Reservoir. Reduction of water yield was closely related to increase in actual evapotranspiration due to the expansion of forestland and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and industrial uses in the basin. The contribution to the observed streamflow decline from land use change fell from 64-92% during 1984-1999 to 36-58% during 2000-2008, whereas the contribution from climate variation climbed from 8-36% during the 1984-1999 to 42- 64% during 2000-2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the most recent decade (i.e., 2000s). We conclude that future climate change and variability will further challenge the water supply capacity of the Miyun Reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation management in the study basin. © Author(s) 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78864
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: College of Forestry, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China; Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, 920 Main Campus, Venture II, Raleigh, NC, United States; Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States; School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Zheng J,, Sun G,, Li W,et al. Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into the Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, China[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(4)