DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-6289-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85038359020
论文题名: Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on the water table level of selected forested wetlands in the southeastern United States
作者: Zhu J ; , Sun G ; , Li W ; , Zhang Y ; , Miao G ; , Noormets A ; , McNulty S ; G ; , King J ; S ; , Kumar M ; , Wang X
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 12 起始页码: 6289
结束页码: 6305
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon
; Climate models
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Evapotranspiration
; Forestry
; Groundwater
; Hydrology
; Land use
; Recharging (underground waters)
; Water quality
; Wetlands
; Depressional wetland
; General circulation model
; Ground water recharge
; Groundwater dynamics
; Hydrological response
; Potential evapotranspiration
; Quantitative information
; Water quality improvements
; Climate change
; carbon sequestration
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate prediction
; CMIP
; ecosystem service
; evapotranspiration
; general circulation model
; hydrological modeling
; land use change
; model validation
; recharge
; twenty first century
; water availability
; water quality
; water table
; wetland
; United States
; Cupressus
英文摘要: The southeastern United States hosts extensive forested wetlands, providing ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, water quality improvement, groundwater recharge, and wildlife habitat. However, these wetland ecosystems are dependent on local climate and hydrology, and are therefore at risk due to climate and land use change. This study develops site-specific empirical hydrologic models for five forested wetlands with different characteristics by analyzing long-term observed meteorological and hydrological data. These wetlands represent typical cypress ponds/swamps, Carolina bays, pine flatwoods, drained pocosins, and natural bottomland hardwood ecosystems. The validated empirical models are then applied at each wetland to predict future water table changes using climate projections from 20 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We show that combined future changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration would significantly alter wetland hydrology including groundwater dynamics by the end of the 21st century. Compared to the historical period, all five wetlands are predicted to become drier over time. The mean water table depth is predicted to drop by 4 to 22â cm in response to the decrease in water availability (i.e., precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) by the year 2100. Among the five examined wetlands, the depressional wetland in hot and humid Florida appears to be most vulnerable to future climate change. This study provides quantitative information on the potential magnitude of wetland hydrological response to future climate change in typical forested wetlands in the southeastern US. © 2017 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78967
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Key Laboratory for Water, Sediment Sciences of the Ministry of Education, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States; Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, NC, United States; Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Illinois at Urbana, Champaign, IL, United States; Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhu J,, Sun G,, Li W,et al. Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on the water table level of selected forested wetlands in the southeastern United States[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(12)