DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-5493-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85033398559
论文题名: Technical note: Combining quantile forecasts and predictive distributions of streamflows
作者: Bogner K ; , Liechti K ; , Zappa M
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 11 起始页码: 5493
结束页码: 5502
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Bayesian networks
; Decision making
; Stream flow
; Water management
; Water resources
; Bayesian model averaging
; Continuous ranked probability scores
; Ensemble model output statistics
; Forecast combinations
; Meteorological modelling
; Predictive distributions
; Probabilistic forecasts
; Waterresource management
; Forecasting
; Bayesian analysis
; ensemble forecasting
; flood
; forecasting method
; hydrometeorology
; prediction
; probability
; regression analysis
; spatial distribution
; streamflow
; water resource
; Sihl River
; Switzerland
英文摘要: The enhanced availability of many different hydro-meteorological modelling and forecasting systems raises the issue of how to optimally combine this great deal of information. Especially the usage of deterministic and probabilistic forecasts with sometimes widely divergent predicted future streamflow values makes it even more complicated for decision makers to sift out the relevant information. In this study multiple streamflow forecast information will be aggregated based on several different predictive distributions, and quantile forecasts. For this combination the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach, the non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR), also known as the ensemble model output statistic (EMOS) techniques, and a novel method called Beta-transformed linear pooling (BLP) will be applied. By the help of the quantile score (QS) and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), the combination results for the Sihl River in Switzerland with about 5 years of forecast data will be compared and the differences between the raw and optimally combined forecasts will be highlighted. The results demonstrate the importance of applying proper forecast combination methods for decision makers in the field of flood and water resource management. © Author(s) 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79008
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Bogner K,, Liechti K,, Zappa M. Technical note: Combining quantile forecasts and predictive distributions of streamflows[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(11)