DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-5385-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85032625047
论文题名: Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Belgium based on radar estimates
作者: Goudenhoofdt E ; , Delobbe L ; , Willems P
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 10 起始页码: 5385
结束页码: 5399
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Gages
; Mean square error
; Meteorological radar
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Radar
; Radar stations
; Rain gages
; Value engineering
; Confidence interval
; Exponential distributions
; Extreme statistics
; Extreme value analysis
; Mean squared error
; Quantitative precipitation estimation
; Regional frequency analysis
; Temporal sampling
; Rain
; confidence interval
; estimation method
; extreme event
; frequency analysis
; precipitation assessment
; radar
; rainfall
; raingauge
; sampling bias
; threshold
; time series analysis
; Belgium
; Brussels [Belgium]
英文摘要: In Belgium, only rain gauge time series have been used so far to study extreme rainfall at a given location. In this paper, the potential of a 12-year quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) from a single weather radar is evaluated. For the period 2005-2016, 1 and 24 h rainfall extremes from automatic rain gauges and collocated radar estimates are compared. The peak intensities are fitted to the exponential distribution using regression in Q-Q plots with a threshold rank which minimises the mean squared error. A basic radar product used as reference exhibits unrealistic high extremes and is not suitable for extreme value analysis. For 24 h rainfall extremes, which occur partly in winter, the radar-based QPE needs a bias correction. A few missing events are caused by the wind drift associated with convective cells and strong radar signal attenuation. Differences between radar and gauge rainfall values are caused by spatial and temporal sampling, gauge underestimations and radar errors. Nonetheless the fit to the QPE data is within the confidence interval of the gauge fit, which remains large due to the short study period. A regional frequency analysis for 1 h duration is performed at the locations of four gauges with 1965-2008 records using the spatially independent QPE data in a circle of 20 km. The confidence interval of the radar fit, which is small due to the sample size, contains the gauge fit for the two closest stations from the radar. In Brussels, the radar extremes are significantly higher than the gauge rainfall extremes, but similar to those observed by an automatic gauge during the same period. The extreme statistics exhibit slight variations related to topography. The radar-based extreme value analysis can be extended to other durations. © Author(s) 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79015
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium; Department of Civil Engineering, Hydraulics Division, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
Recommended Citation:
Goudenhoofdt E,, Delobbe L,, Willems P. Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Belgium based on radar estimates[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(10)