| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL065364
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| 论文题名: | Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss |
| 作者: | Yeager S.G.; Karspeck A.R.; Danabasoglu G.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8289
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| EISSN: | 1944-8020
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:24 | | 起始页码: | 10704
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| 结束页码: | 10713
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Arctic sea ice variability
; Atlantic thermohaline circulation
; climate change
; decadal climate prediction
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Forecasting
; Heat transfer
; Ice
; Oceanography
; Sea ice
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface waters
; Arctic sea ice
; Climate prediction
; Coupled climate model
; Ocean heat transport
; Poleward heat transport
; Sea-surface temperature change
; Subpolar North Atlantic
; Thermohaline circulations
; Climate change
; accuracy assessment
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; decadal variation
; forecasting method
; heat transfer
; historical record
; prediction
; radiative forcing
; sea ice
; sea surface temperature
; spatiotemporal analysis
; thermohaline circulation
; trend analysis
; Arctic
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
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| 英文摘要: | Coupled climate models initialized from historical climate states and subject to anthropogenic forcings can produce skillful decadal predictions of sea surface temperature change in the subpolar North Atlantic. The skill derives largely from initialization, which improves the representation of slow changes in ocean circulation and associated poleward heat transport. We show that skillful predictions of decadal trends in Arctic winter sea ice extent are also possible, particularly in the Atlantic sector. External radiative forcing contributes to the skill of retrospective decadal sea ice predictions, but the spatial and temporal accuracy is greatly enhanced by the more realistic representation of ocean heat transport anomalies afforded by initialization. Recent forecasts indicate that a spin-down of the thermohaline circulation that began near the turn of the century will continue, and this will result in near-neutral decadal trends in Atlantic winter sea ice extent in the coming years, with decadal growth in select regions. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84955193956&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065364&partnerID=40&md5=c7534fd1c260a271ca18bbb067dd837a
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7905
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Yeager S.G.,Karspeck A.R.,Danabasoglu G.. Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(24).
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