DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066184
论文题名: Precipitation projections in the tropical Pacific are sensitive to different types of SST bias adjustment
作者: Brown J.N. ; Matear R.J. ; Brown J.R. ; Katzfey J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8299
EISSN: 1944-8030
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 24 起始页码: 10856
结束页码: 10866
语种: 英语
英文关键词: bias
; ENSO
; Pacific
; precipitation
; SST
; tropics
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Bias
; Coupled climate model
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; ENSO
; Pacific
; Precipitation change
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; SST
; Oceanography
; climate modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; error analysis
; future prospect
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea surface temperature
; sensitivity analysis
; temperature anomaly
; warming
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: Many coupled climate models suffer from large sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the tropical Pacific, and for this reason studies have used a combination of observed SSTs and model-generated SST warming patterns to obtain climate projections. However, the existence of biases in the present-day coupled model SSTs implies that SST future warming patterns may also be biased. Models with large biases in tropical Pacific SST simulate warming that does not align with the observed cold tongue, producing a dynamically unrealistic pattern when added to observed SSTs. We demonstrate that projections of precipitation are highly sensitive to the warming pattern of SSTs by using idealized annually forced atmospheric model experiments. Simple bias adjustment of the warming pattern is applied, leading to precipitation changes that are around 60% weaker in the Western Tropical Pacific. Sensitivity of precipitation to small changes in the SST may explain the large discrepancies in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 precipitation projections in this region. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84955214355&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066184&partnerID=40&md5=8ce8345ec2ea0b6daf3ca9b30e7e7d9b
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7915
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: CSIRO, Hobart, TAS, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Brown J.N.,Matear R.J.,Brown J.R.,et al. Precipitation projections in the tropical Pacific are sensitive to different types of SST bias adjustment[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(24).