DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85019890810
论文题名: Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic
作者: Shevnina E ; , Kourzeneva E ; , Kovalenko V ; , Vihma T
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 5 起始页码: 2559
结束页码: 2578
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Bridges
; Climate models
; Economics
; Floods
; Probability density function
; Risk perception
; Runoff
; Coefficients of variations
; Economic activities
; Engineering calculation
; Exceedance probability
; Extreme flood events
; Long-term forecasting
; Probabilistic modeling
; Probability density function (pdf)
; Climate change
; assessment method
; climate change
; climatology
; discharge
; economic activity
; extreme event
; flood
; model validation
; numerical model
; probability density function
; runoff
; socioeconomic conditions
; spring (season)
; Arctic
; Nadym Basin
; Russian Federation
英文摘要: Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of the infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the period 2010-2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym. © Author(s) 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79169
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, Helsinki, Finland; Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Malookhtinsky prospect 98, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation
Recommended Citation:
Shevnina E,, Kourzeneva E,, Kovalenko V,et al. Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(5)