DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066858
论文题名: Revisiting trends in wetness and dryness in the presence of internal climate variability and water limitations over land
作者: Kumar S. ; Allan R.P. ; Zwiers F. ; Lawrence D.M. ; Dirmeyer P.A.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8301
EISSN: 1944-8032
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 24 起始页码: 10867
结束页码: 10875
语种: 英语
英文关键词: dryness index
; global warming
; hydroclimatology
; intensification of hydrological cycle
; internal variability
; wetness and dryness trends over land
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climatology
; Driers (materials)
; Evaporation
; Global warming
; Available water
; Dry seasons
; Dryness index
; Hydro climatologies
; Hydrological cycles
; Internal climate variability
; Internal variability
; Time-scales
; Climate models
; arid region
; climate change
; climate modeling
; error analysis
; evaporation
; global warming
; hydrological cycle
; limiting factor
; moisture flux
; precipitation (climatology)
; trend analysis
; water availability
; wettability
英文摘要: A theoretically expected consequence of the intensification of the hydrological cycle under global warming is that on average, wet regions get wetter and dry regions get drier (WWDD). Recent studies, however, have found significant discrepancies between the expected pattern of change and observed changes over land. We assess the WWDD theory in four climate models. We find that the reported discrepancy can be traced to two main issues: (1) unforced internal climate variability strongly affects local wetness and dryness trends and can obscure underlying agreement with WWDD, and (2) dry land regions are not constrained to become drier by enhanced moisture divergence since evaporation cannot exceed precipitation over multiannual time scales. Over land, where the available water does not limit evaporation, a "wet gets wetter" signal predominates. On seasonal time scales, where evaporation can exceed precipitation, trends in wet season becoming wetter and dry season becoming drier are also found. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84955193159&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066858&partnerID=40&md5=97a215a38f0fcbabe1750a325151fa5a
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7917
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Kumar S.,Allan R.P.,Zwiers F.,et al. Revisiting trends in wetness and dryness in the presence of internal climate variability and water limitations over land[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(24).