DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066608
论文题名: Effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on decadal climate prediction skill of Pacific sea surface temperatures
作者: Meehl G.A. ; Teng H. ; Maher N. ; England M.H.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8302
EISSN: 1944-8033
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 24 起始页码: 10840
结束页码: 10846
语种: 英语
英文关键词: decadal climate prediction
; Pinatubo
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Nickel
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Anomaly patterns
; Climate prediction
; Internal variability
; Mount Pinatubo eruption
; Multi-Model Simulations
; Pinatubo
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Sea surface temperatures
; Oceanography
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; decadal variation
; El Nino
; hindcasting
; La Nina
; sea surface temperature
; volcanic eruption
; Central Luzon
; Luzon
; Mount Pinatubo
; Pacific Ocean
; Philippines
; Zambales
英文摘要: Multi-model simulations show a post-Pinatubo eruption sequence of Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that includes a La Niña-like pattern the third northern winter after an eruption, opposite in sign to what was observed after Pinatubo. This leads to the loss of hindcast skill for years in the 1990s affected by the Pinatubo eruption because the post-eruption internal variability of the climate system did not match the multi-model forced response. Agung (1963) and El Chichõn (1982) happened to have post-eruption Pacific SST sequences more similar to the multi-model response and thus do not degrade prediction skill as measured by anomaly pattern correlation in the hindcasts. Thus, decadal hindcast skill is reduced if the post-eruption randomly occurring internal El Niño variability in the observations deviates from the multi-model forced response that, by definition, averages out internal variability in favor of the forced response. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84955205699&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066608&partnerID=40&md5=4e141315f73a71eb1a6da959ca484413
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7918
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Meehl G.A.,Teng H.,Maher N.,et al. Effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on decadal climate prediction skill of Pacific sea surface temperatures[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(24).