DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-1911-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85017129754
论文题名: Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam
作者: Birkinshaw S ; J ; , Guerreiro S ; B ; , Nicholson A ; , Liang Q ; , Quinn P ; , Zhang L ; , He B ; , Yin J ; , Fowler H ; J
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 4 起始页码: 1911
结束页码: 1927
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate models
; Rivers
; Water analysis
; Water resources
; Annual precipitation
; Calibration periods
; Climate change impact
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Distributed hydrological model
; General circulation model
; Validation periods
; Yangtze River basin
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; evapotranspiration
; hydrological modeling
; precipitation (climatology)
; river discharge
; China
; Hubei
; Three Gorges Dam
; Yangtze Basin
; Yangtze River
; Yichang
英文摘要: The Yangtze River basin is home to more than 400 million people and contributes to nearly half of China's food production. Therefore, planning for climate change impacts on water resource discharges is essential. We used a physically based distributed hydrological model, Shetran, to simulate discharge in the Yangtze River just below the Three Gorges Dam at Yichang (1 007 200 km2), obtaining an excellent match between simulated and measured daily discharge, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.95 for the calibration period (1996-2000) and 0.92 for the validation period (2001-2005). We then used a simple monthly delta change approach for 78 climate model projections (35 different general circulation models-GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to examine the effect of climate change on river discharge for 2041-2070 for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Projected changes to the basin's annual precipitation varied between-3.6 and +14.8 % but increases in temperature and consequently evapotranspiration (calculated using the Thornthwaite equation) were projected by all CMIP5 models, resulting in projected changes in the basin's annual discharge from-29.8 to +16.0 %. These large differences were mainly due to the predicted expansion of the summer monsoon north and west into the Yangtze Basin in some CMIP5 models, e.g. CanESM2, but not in others, e.g. CSIRO-Mk3-6-0. This was despite both models being able to simulate current climate well. Until projections of the strength and location of the monsoon under a future climate improve, large uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of future change in discharge for the Yangtze will remain. © 2017 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79204
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle, United Kingdom; Ove Arup and Partners, Admiral House, 78 East St., Leeds, United Kingdom; State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Bain, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China; School of Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, China
Recommended Citation:
Birkinshaw S,J,, Guerreiro S,et al. Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(4)