globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85015252641
论文题名:
Impacts of future deforestation and climate change on the hydrology of the Amazon Basin: A multi-model analysis with a new set of land-cover change scenarios
作者: Guimberteau M; , Ciais P; , Pablo Boisier J; , Paula Dutra Aguiar A; , Biemans H; , De Deurwaerder H; , Galbraith D; , Kruijt B; , Langerwisch F; , Poveda G; , Rammig A; , Andres Rodriguez D; , Tejada G; , Thonicke K; , Von Randow C; , Randow R; , Zhang K; , Verbeeck H
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期:3
起始页码: 1455
结束页码: 1475
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide ; Climate models ; Deforestation ; Drought ; Evapotranspiration ; Hydrology ; Runoff ; Soil moisture ; Evaporative demands ; General circulation model ; Land surface models ; Land-cover change ; Runoff projections ; Structural differences ; Surface hydrology ; Temperature increase ; Climate change ; climate change ; climate effect ; deforestation ; evapotranspiration ; future prospect ; hydrology ; land cover ; land surface ; precipitation (climatology) ; regional pattern ; river discharge ; runoff ; scenario analysis ; Amazon Basin ; Amazonia ; Bolivia ; Brazil ; Tapajos River
英文摘要: Deforestation in Amazon is expected to decrease evapotranspiration (ET) and to increase soil moisture and river discharge under prevailing energy-limited conditions. The magnitude and sign of the response of ET to deforestation depend both on the magnitude and regional patterns of land-cover change (LCC), as well as on climate change and CO2 levels. On the one hand, elevated CO2 decreases leaf-scale transpiration, but this effect could be offset by increased foliar area density. Using three regional LCC scenarios specifically established for the Brazilian and Bolivian Amazon, we investigate the impacts of climate change and deforestation on the surface hydrology of the Amazon Basin for this century, taking 2009 as a reference. For each LCC scenario, three land surface models (LSMs), LPJmL-DGVM, INLAND-DGVM and ORCHIDEE, are forced by bias-corrected climate simulated by three general circulation models (GCMs) of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4). On average, over the Amazon Basin with no deforestation, the GCM results indicate a temperature increase of 3.3ĝ€°C by 2100 which drives up the evaporative demand, whereby precipitation increases by 8.5 %, with a large uncertainty across GCMs. In the case of no deforestation, we found that ET and runoff increase by 5.0 and 14ĝ€%, respectively. However, in south-east Amazonia, precipitation decreases by 10ĝ€% at the end of the dry season and the three LSMs produce a 6ĝ€% decrease of ET, which is less than precipitation, so that runoff decreases by 22 %. For instance, the minimum river discharge of the Rio Tapajós is reduced by 31ĝ€% in 2100. To study the additional effect of deforestation, we prescribed to the LSMs three contrasted LCC scenarios, with a forest decline going from 7 to 34ĝ€% over this century. All three scenarios partly offset the climate-induced increase of ET, and runoff increases over the entire Amazon. In the south-east, however, deforestation amplifies the decrease of ET at the end of dry season, leading to a large increase of runoff (up to +27ĝ€% in the extreme deforestation case), offsetting the negative effect of climate change, thus balancing the decrease of low flows in the Rio Tapajós. These projections are associated with large uncertainties, which we attribute separately to the differences in LSMs, GCMs and to the uncertain range of deforestation. At the subcatchment scale, the uncertainty range on ET changes is shown to first depend on GCMs, while the uncertainty of runoff projections is predominantly induced by LSM structural differences. By contrast, we found that the uncertainty in both ET and runoff changes attributable to uncertain future deforestation is low. © Author(s) 2017. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79229
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Sorbonne Universités, UPMC, CNRS, EPHE - UMR7619 METIS, Paris, France; Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile, and Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile; Centro de Ciência Do Sistema Terrestre (CCST), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), São José Dos Campos, Av dos Astronautas 1758, 12227-010, Brazil; Wageningen Universityg and gResearch (Alterra), Wageningen, Netherlands; CAVElab - Computational and Applied Vegetation Ecology, Department of Applied Ecology and Environmental Biology, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, Ghent, Belgium; School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60g12g03, Telegraphenberg A62, Potsdam, Germany; School of Geosciences and Environment, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Colombia; TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Land Surface-Atmosphere Interactions, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany; Centro de Ciência Do Sistema Terrestre (CCST), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Rodovia Presidente Dutra kmĝ39, CPĝ01, CEP:ĝ12630-000, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil; State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, 1 Xikang Road, Nanjing, China

Recommended Citation:
Guimberteau M,, Ciais P,, Pablo Boisier J,et al. Impacts of future deforestation and climate change on the hydrology of the Amazon Basin: A multi-model analysis with a new set of land-cover change scenarios[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(3)
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