DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066942
论文题名: Recent Hadley cell expansion: The role of internal atmospheric variability in reconciling modeled and observed trends
作者: Garfinkel C.I. ; Waugh D.W. ; Polvani L.M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8306
EISSN: 1944-8037
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 24 起始页码: 10824
结束页码: 10831
语种: 英语
英文关键词: chemistry-climate interactions
; climate change
; Hadley Cell
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric chemistry
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Clouds
; Expansion
; Greenhouse gases
; Oceanography
; Ozone
; Ozone layer
; Surface waters
; Atmospheric variability
; Chemistry-climate interaction
; Chemistry-climate models
; Global climate model
; Hadley cells
; Northern Hemispheres
; Ozone depleting substances
; Sea surface temperatures
; Climate models
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; global climate
; greenhouse gas
; Hadley cell
; Northern Hemisphere
; ozone depletion
; sea surface temperature
; Southern Hemisphere
; stratosphere
; trend analysis
; tropical environment
英文摘要: Several studies have reported that global climate models underestimate the observed trend in tropical expansion, with the implication that such models are missing key processes of the climate system. We show here that integrations of a chemistry-climate model forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances can produce 1980 to 2009 expansion trends comparable to those found in most reanalyses data products. Correct representation of the SSTs changes is important for the Northern Hemisphere, while correct representation of stratospheric ozone changes is important for the Southern Hemisphere. The ensemble mean trend (which captures only the forced response) is nearly always much weaker than trends in reanalyses. This suggests that a large fraction of the recently observed changes may, in fact, be a consequence of internal atmospheric variability and not a response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcings. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84955213418&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066942&partnerID=40&md5=b1135861b443e675334e3c768f719a40
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7922
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Recommended Citation:
Garfinkel C.I.,Waugh D.W.,Polvani L.M.. Recent Hadley cell expansion: The role of internal atmospheric variability in reconciling modeled and observed trends[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(24).