DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-65-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85008889326
论文题名: Event-scale power law recession analysis: Quantifying methodological uncertainty
作者: Dralle D ; N ; , Karst N ; J ; , Charalampous K ; , Veenstra A ; , Thompson S ; E
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 1 起始页码: 65
结束页码: 81
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Parameter estimation
; Probability distributions
; Runoff
; Sensitivity analysis
; Stream flow
; Uncertainty analysis
; Central tendencies
; Correlative relationship
; Fitting techniques
; Impact-parameter
; Mediterranean climates
; Model parameters
; Parameter distributions
; Recession analysis
; Catchments
; catchment
; hydrological modeling
; Mediterranean environment
; parameterization
; power law
; regression analysis
; sensitivity analysis
; streamflow
; uncertainty analysis
; uncertainty role
; California
; Oregon
; United States
英文摘要: The study of single streamflow recession events is receiving increasing attention following the presentation of novel theoretical explanations for the emergence of power law forms of the recession relationship, and drivers of its variability. Individually characterizing streamflow recessions often involves describing the similarities and differences between model parameters fitted to each recession time series. Significant methodological sensitivity has been identified in the fitting and parameterization of models that describe populations of many recessions, but the dependence of estimated model parameters on methodological choices has not been evaluated for event-by-event forms of analysis. Here, we use daily streamflow data from 16 catchments in northern California and southern Oregon to investigate how combinations of commonly used streamflow recession definitions and fitting techniques impact parameter estimates of a widely used power law recession model. Results are relevant to watersheds that are relatively steep, forested, and rain-dominated. The highly seasonal mediterranean climate of northern California and southern Oregon ensures study catchments explore a wide range of recession behaviors and wetness states, ideal for a sensitivity analysis. In such catchments, we show the following: (i) methodological decisions, including ones that have received little attention in the literature, can impact parameter value estimates and model goodness of fit; (ii) the central tendencies of event-scale recession parameter probability distributions are largely robust to methodological choices, in the sense that differing methods rank catchments similarly according to the medians of these distributions; (iii) recession parameter distributions are method-dependent, but roughly catchment-independent, such that changing the choices made about a particular method affects a given parameter in similar ways across most catchments; and (iv) the observed correlative relationship between the power-law recession scale parameter and catchment antecedent wetness varies depending on recession definition and fitting choices. Considering study results, we recommend a combination of four key methodological decisions to maximize the quality of fitted recession curves, and to minimize bias in the related populations of fitted recession parameters. © 2017 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79308
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: University of California Berkeley, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Berkeley, CA, United States; Babson College, Department of Mathematics, Wellesley, MA, United States; University of Bristol, Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Dralle D,N,, Karst N,et al. Event-scale power law recession analysis: Quantifying methodological uncertainty[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(1)