| DOI: | 10.5194/hess-22-2511-2018
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85046076469
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| 论文题名: | Managing uncertainty in flood protection planning with climate projections |
| 作者: | Dittes B; , Špacková O; , Schoppa L; , Straub D
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| 刊名: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
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| ISSN: | 10275606
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| 出版年: | 2018
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| 卷: | 22, 期:4 | | 起始页码: | 2511
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| 结束页码: | 2526
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Bayesian networks
; Catchments
; Decision making
; Flood control
; Floods
; Probability distributions
; Runoff
; Amount of information
; Bayesian approaches
; Climate projection
; Extreme discharges
; Integrated strategy
; Joint probability distributions
; Managing uncertainty
; Optimization framework
; Uncertainty analysis
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| 英文摘要: | Technical flood protection is a necessary part of integrated strategies to protect riverine settlements from extreme floods. Many technical flood protection measures, such as dikes and protection walls, are costly to adapt after their initial construction. This poses a challenge to decision makers as there is large uncertainty in how the required protection level will change during the measure lifetime, which is typically many decades long. Flood protection requirements should account for multiple future uncertain factors: Socioeconomic, e.g., whether the population and with it the damage potential grows or falls; technological, e.g., possible advancements in flood protection; and climatic, e.g., whether extreme discharge will become more frequent or not. This paper focuses on climatic uncertainty. Specifically, we devise methodology to account for uncertainty associated with the use of discharge projections, ultimately leading to planning implications. For planning purposes, we categorize uncertainties as either q visible, if they can be quantified from available catchment data, or hidden, if they cannot be quantified from catchment data and must be estimated, e.g., from the literature. It is vital to consider the hidden uncertainty, since in practical applications only a limited amount of information (e.g., a finite projection ensemble) is available. We use a Bayesian approach to quantify the visible uncertainties and combine them with an estimate of the hidden uncertainties to learn a joint probability distribution of the parameters of extreme discharge. The methodology is integrated into an optimization framework and applied to a pre-alpine case study to give a quantitative, cost-optimal recommendation on the required amount of flood protection. The results show that hidden uncertainty ought to be considered in planning, but the larger the uncertainty already present, the smaller the impact of adding more. The recommended planning is robust to moderate changes in uncertainty as well as in trend. In contrast, planning without consideration of bias and dependencies in and between uncertainty components leads to strongly suboptimal planning recommendations. © 2018 Author(s) . |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79322
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Engineering Risk Analysis Group, Technische Universität München, Arcisstr. 21, Munich, Germany
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Dittes B,, Špacková O,, Schoppa L,et al. Managing uncertainty in flood protection planning with climate projections[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(4)
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