DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-2409-2018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85045885381
论文题名: Automatic design of basin-specific drought indexes for highly regulated water systems
作者: Zaniolo M ; , Giuliani M ; , Castelletti A ; F ; , Pulido-Velazquez M
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 4 起始页码: 2409
结束页码: 2424
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Evolutionary algorithms
; Feature extraction
; Model structures
; Pareto principle
; Set theory
; Water resources
; Feature extraction algorithms
; Mediterranean waters
; Meteorological variables
; Minimizing the number of
; Multi objective evolutionary algorithms
; Relevance and redundancies
; Trial-and-error process
; Water infrastructure
; Drought
英文摘要: Socio-economic costs of drought are progressively increasing worldwide due to undergoing alterations of hydro-meteorological regimes induced by climate change. Although drought management is largely studied in the literature, traditional drought indexes often fail at detecting critical events in highly regulated systems, where natural water availability is conditioned by the operation of water infrastructures such as dams, diversions, and pumping wells. Here, ad hoc index formulations are usually adopted based on empirical combinations of several, supposed-to-be significant, hydro-meteorological variables. These customized formulations, however, while effective in the design basin, can hardly be generalized and transferred to different contexts. In this study, we contribute FRIDA (FRamework for Index-based Drought Analysis), a novel framework for the automatic design of basin-customized drought indexes. In contrast to ad hoc empirical approaches, FRIDA is fully automated, generalizable, and portable across different basins. FRIDA builds an index representing a surrogate of the drought conditions of the basin, computed by combining all the relevant available information about the water circulating in the system identified by means of a feature extraction algorithm. We used the Wrapper for Quasi-Equally Informative Subset Selection (W-QEISS), which features a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to find Pareto-efficient subsets of variables by maximizing the wrapper accuracy, minimizing the number of selected variables, and optimizing relevance and redundancy of the subset. The preferred variable subset is selected among the efficient solutions and used to formulate the final index according to alternative model structures. We apply FRIDA to the case study of the Jucar river basin (Spain), a drought-prone and highly regulated Mediterranean water resource system, where an advanced drought management plan relying on the formulation of an ad hoc "state index" is used for triggering drought management measures. The state index was constructed empirically with a trial-and-error process begun in the 1980s and finalized in 2007, guided by the experts from the Confederación Hidrográfica del Júcar (CHJ). Our results show that the automated variable selection outcomes align with CHJ's 25-year-long empirical refinement. In addition, the resultant FRIDA index outperforms the official State Index in terms of accuracy in reproducing the target variable and cardinality of the selected inputs set. © Author(s) 2018. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79328
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza L. da Vinci, 32, Milan, Italy; Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH, Wolfgang-Pauli-Str. 15, Zurich, Switzerland; Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València, Camí de Vera s/n, Valencia, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Zaniolo M,, Giuliani M,, Castelletti A,et al. Automatic design of basin-specific drought indexes for highly regulated water systems[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(4)