globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-2091-2018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85045001951
论文题名:
Hydrological assessment of atmospheric forcing uncertainty in the Euro-Mediterranean area using a land surface model
作者: Gelati E; , Decharme B; , Calvet J; -C; , Minvielle M; , Polcher J; , Fairbairn D; , Weedon G; P
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期:4
起始页码: 2091
结束页码: 2115
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Remote sensing ; Rivers ; Runoff ; Soil moisture ; Space optics ; Surface measurement ; Time series ; Uncertainty analysis ; Climate change scenarios ; European Space Agency ; Fresh water resources ; Hydrological assessment ; Interannual variability ; Land surface hydrology ; Land surface modeling ; Surface soil moisture ; Climate change ; air temperature ; assessment method ; atmospheric forcing ; climate change ; data set ; hydrological response ; land surface ; leaf area index ; model ; remote sensing ; river discharge ; soil moisture ; time series ; uncertainty analysis ; Europe ; Mediterranean Region
英文摘要: Physically consistent descriptions of land surface hydrology are crucial for planning human activities that involve freshwater resources, especially in light of the expected climate change scenarios. We assess how atmospheric forcing data uncertainties affect land surface model (LSM) simulations by means of an extensive evaluation exercise using a number of state-of-the-art remote sensing and station-based datasets. For this purpose, we use the CO2-responsive ISBA-A-gs LSM coupled with the CNRM version of the Total Runoff Integrated Pathways (CTRIP) river routing model. We perform multi-forcing simulations over the Euro-Mediterranean area (25-75.5°ĝ€N, 11.5°ĝ€W-62.5°ĝ€E, at 0.5° resolution) from 1979 to 2012. The model is forced using four atmospheric datasets. Three of them are based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERA-I). The fourth dataset is independent from ERA-Interim: PGF, developed at Princeton University. The hydrological impacts of atmospheric forcing uncertainties are assessed by comparing simulated surface soil moisture (SSM), leaf area index (LAI) and river discharge against observation-based datasets: SSM from the European Space Agency's Water Cycle Multi-mission Observation Strategy and Climate Change Initiative projects (ESA-CCI), LAI of the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS), and Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) river discharge. The atmospheric forcing data are also compared to reference datasets. Precipitation is the most uncertain forcing variable across datasets, while the most consistent are air temperature and SW and LW radiation. At the monthly timescale, SSM and LAI simulations are relatively insensitive to forcing uncertainties. Some discrepancies with ESA-CCI appear to be forcing-independent and may be due to different assumptions underlying the LSM and the remote sensing retrieval algorithm. All simulations overestimate average summer and early-autumn LAI. Forcing uncertainty impacts on simulated river discharge are larger on mean values and standard deviations than on correlations with GRDC data. Anomaly correlation coefficients are not inferior to those computed from raw monthly discharge time series, indicating that the model reproduces inter-annual variability fairly well. However, simulated river discharge time series generally feature larger variability compared to measurements. They also tend to overestimate winter-spring high flows and underestimate summer-autumn low flows. Considering that several differences emerge between simulations and reference data, which may not be completely explained by forcing uncertainty, we suggest several research directions. These range from further investigating the discrepancies between LSMs and remote sensing retrievals to developing new model components to represent physical and anthropogenic processes. © Author(s) 2018.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79342
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: CNRM, UMR3589 (Météo-France, CNRS), Toulouse, France; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique du CNRS, UMR8539 (IPSL, CNRS), Paris, France; Met Office, Joint Centre for Hydrometeorological Research, Wallingford, United Kingdom; Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy; European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Gelati E,, Decharme B,, Calvet J,et al. Hydrological assessment of atmospheric forcing uncertainty in the Euro-Mediterranean area using a land surface model[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(4)
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