DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-1957-2018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044411461
论文题名: Evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts generated through post-processing in a Canadian catchment
作者: Jha S ; K ; , Shrestha D ; L ; , Stadnyk T ; A ; , Coulibaly P
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 3 起始页码: 1957
结束页码: 1969
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Floods
; Rain
; Runoff
; Weather forecasting
; Deterministic forecasts
; Ensemble forecasting
; Forecast performance
; National centers for environmental predictions
; Numerical weather prediction models
; Precipitation forecast
; Quantitative precipitation forecast
; Streamflow forecasting
; Catchments
英文摘要: Flooding in Canada is often caused by heavy rainfall during the snowmelt period. Hydrologic forecast centers rely on precipitation forecasts obtained from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to enforce hydrological models for streamflow forecasting. The uncertainties in raw quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are enhanced by physiography and orography effects over a diverse landscape, particularly in the western catchments of Canada. A Bayesian post-processing approach called rainfall post-processing (RPP), developed in Australia (Robertson et al., 2013; Shrestha et al., 2015), has been applied to assess its forecast performance in a Canadian catchment. Raw QPFs obtained from two sources, Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) Reforecast 2 project, from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Global Deterministic Forecast System (GDPS), from Environment and Climate Change Canada, are used in this study. The study period from January 2013 to December 2015 covered a major flood event in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Post-processed results show that the RPP is able to remove the bias and reduce the errors of both GEFS and GDPS forecasts. Ensembles generated from the RPP reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty. ©Author(s) 2018. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79349
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, India; Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organization, Clayton, VIC, Australia; Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Jha S,K,, Shrestha D,et al. Evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts generated through post-processing in a Canadian catchment[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(3)