DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85043574247
论文题名: Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections
作者: Melsen L ; A ; , Addor N ; , Mizukami N ; , Newman A ; J ; , Torfs P ; J ; J ; F ; , Clark M ; P ; , Uijlenhoet R ; , Teuling A ; J
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 3 起始页码: 1775
结束页码: 1791
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Decision making
; Mapping
; Runoff
; Water resources
; Annual runoff
; Hydrologic modeling
; Hydrologic models
; Snow process
; Socio-economics
; Sources of uncertainty
; Water managers
; Water resource planning
; Climate models
; basin management
; climate modeling
; decision making
; discharge
; hydrological modeling
; mapping method
; runoff
; uncertainty analysis
; United States
英文摘要: Hydrologic projections are of vital socio-economic importance. However, they are also prone to uncertainty. In order to establish a meaningful range of storylines to support water managers in decision making, we need to reveal the relevant sources of uncertainty. Here, we systematically and extensively investigate uncertainty in hydrologic projections for 605 basins throughout the contiguous US. We show that in the majority of the basins, the sign of change in average annual runoff and discharge timing for the period 2070-2100 compared to 1985-2008 differs among combinations of climate models, hydrologic models, and parameters. Mapping the results revealed that different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions. Hydrologic model induced uncertainty in the sign of change in mean runoff was related to snow processes and aridity, whereas uncertainty in both mean runoff and discharge timing induced by the climate models was related to disagreement among the models regarding the change in precipitation. Overall, disagreement on the sign of change was more widespread for the mean runoff than for the discharge timing. The results demonstrate the need to define a wide range of quantitative hydrologic storylines, including parameter, hydrologic model, and climate model forcing uncertainty, to support water resource planning. © 2018 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79361
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States; Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Melsen L,A,, Addor N,et al. Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(3)