globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-1157-2018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85041849444
论文题名:
Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps)
作者: Förster K; , Hanzer F; , Stoll E; , Scaife A; A; , MacLachlan C; , Schöber J; , Huttenlau M; , Achleitner S; , Strasser U
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期:2
起始页码: 1157
结束页码: 1173
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Forecasting ; Snow ; Coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation model ; Hydrological modeling ; Meteorological fields ; Seasonal forecasts ; Seasonal prediction ; Snow water equivalent ; Water balance simulation ; Winter snow accumulation ; Climate models
英文摘要: This article presents analyses of retrospective seasonal forecasts of snow accumulation. Re-forecasts with 4 months' lead time from two coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (NCEP CFSv2 and MetOffice GloSea5) drive the Alpine Water balance and Runoff Estimation model (AWARE) in order to predict mid-winter snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters. As snowpack is hydrological storage that evolves during the winter season, it is strongly dependent on precipitation totals of the previous months. Climate model (CM) predictions of precipitation totals integrated from November to February (NDJF) compare reasonably well with observations. Even though predictions for precipitation may not be significantly more skilful than for temperature, the predictive skill achieved for precipitation is retained in subsequent water balance simulations when snow water equivalent (SWE) in February is considered. Given the AWARE simulations driven by observed meteorological fields as a benchmark for SWE analyses, the correlation achieved using GloSea5-AWARE SWE predictions is r D0.57. The tendency of SWE anomalies (i.e. the sign of anomalies) is correctly predicted in 11 of 13 years. For CFSv2-AWARE, the corresponding values are r D0.28 and 7 of 13 years. The results suggest that some seasonal prediction of hydrological model storage tendencies in parts of Europe is possible. © 2018 Author.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79397
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Leibniz Universität Hannover, Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Hanover, Germany; Centre for Climate Change Adaptation, Innsbruck, Austria; Institute of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria; Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; TIWAG, Tiroler Wasserkraft AG, Innsbruck, Austria; Unit of Hydraulic Engineering, Institute of Infrastructure, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

Recommended Citation:
Förster K,, Hanzer F,, Stoll E,et al. Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps)[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(2)
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