DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-529-2018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85041233023
论文题名: A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: Application to regional drought processes in China
作者: Liu Z ; , Lu G ; , He H ; , Wu Z ; , He J
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 1 起始页码: 529
结束页码: 546
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Calibration
; Climate models
; Forecasting
; Oceanography
; Orthogonal functions
; Regression analysis
; Surface waters
; Water management
; Water resources
; Weather forecasting
; Empirical orthogonal function analysis
; Large-scale circulation patterns
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Spatial-temporal evolution
; Standardized precipitation index
; Statistical relationship
; Stepwise regression method
; Waterresource management
; Drought
; air-sea interaction
; climate modeling
; conceptual framework
; drought
; index method
; sea surface temperature
; spatiotemporal analysis
; water resource
; China
英文摘要: Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for water resource managers to develop and implement drought mitigation measures. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatial-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we developed a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies (SAs). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is first applied to drought-related SAs at 200 and 500 hPa geopotential height (HGT) and sea surface temperature (SST). Subsequently, SA-based predictors are built based on the spatial pattern of the first EOF modes. This drought prediction model is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric-oceanic SA-based predictors and SPI3 (3-month standardized precipitation index), calibrated using a simple stepwise regression method. Predictor computation is based on forecast atmospheric-oceanic products retrieved from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), indicating the lead time of the model depends on that of CFSv2. The model can make seamless drought predictions for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Model application to four recent severe regional drought processes in China indicates its good performance in predicting seasonal drought development, despite its weakness in predicting drought severity. Overall, the model can be a worthy reference for seasonal water resource management in China. © 2018 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79420
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Water Problem, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China; Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, China
Recommended Citation:
Liu Z,, Lu G,, He H,et al. A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: Application to regional drought processes in China[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(1)