| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL066779
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| 论文题名: | Precipitation and floodiness |
| 作者: | Stephens E.; Day J.J.; Pappenberger F.; Cloke H.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8361
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| EISSN: | 1944-8092
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:23 | | 起始页码: | 10316
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| 结束页码: | 10323
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | climate variability
; floodiness
; floods
; forecasting
; precipitation
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| Scopus关键词: | Climatology
; Decision making
; Floods
; Forecasting
; Hazards
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Awareness systems
; Climate variability
; Floodiness
; Hydrological modeling
; Number of factors
; Precipitation anomalies
; Precipitation forecast
; River discharge
; Weather forecasting
; climate variation
; flood forecasting
; hazard assessment
; hydrological modeling
; hydrometeorology
; nonlinearity
; precipitation (climatology)
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| 英文摘要: | There are a number of factors that lead to nonlinearity between precipitation anomalies and flood hazard; this nonlinearity is a pertinent issue for applications that use a precipitation forecast as a proxy for imminent flood hazard. We assessed the degree of this nonlinearity for the first time using a recently developed global-scale hydrological model driven by the ERA-Interim/Land precipitation reanalysis (1980-2010). We introduced new indices to assess large-scale flood hazard, or floodiness, and quantified the link between monthly precipitation, river discharge, and floodiness anomalies at the global and regional scales. The results show that monthly floodiness is not well correlated with precipitation, therefore demonstrating the value of hydrometeorological systems for providing floodiness forecasts for decision-makers. A method is described for forecasting floodiness using the Global Flood Awareness System, building a climatology of regional floodiness from which to forecast floodiness anomalies out to 2 weeks. © 2015. The Authors. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84953638325&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066779&partnerID=40&md5=9c2ee068f87ee1100ffd5817edc97be6
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7977
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Stephens E.,Day J.J.,Pappenberger F.,et al. Precipitation and floodiness[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(23).
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