DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066307
论文题名: Quantifying changes in climate variability and extremes: Pitfalls and their overcoming
作者: Sippel S. ; Zscheischler J. ; Heimann M. ; Otto F.E.L. ; Peters J. ; Mahecha M.D.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8401
EISSN: 1944-8132
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 22 起始页码: 9990
结束页码: 9998
语种: 英语
英文关键词: extreme events
; normalization
; statistics
; variability
Scopus关键词: Earth sciences
; Geophysics
; Statistics
; Climate observations
; Climate variability
; Extreme events
; Increasing temperatures
; Normalization
; Normalized temperature
; Temperature extremes
; Variability
; Climate models
; analytical method
; climate variation
; data set
; estimation method
; extreme event
; frequency analysis
; Gaussian method
; high temperature
; probability
; quantitative analysis
; standardization
; statistical analysis
英文摘要: Hot temperature extremes have increased substantially in frequency and magnitude over past decades. A widely used approach to quantify this phenomenon is standardizing temperature data relative to the local mean and variability of a reference period. Here we demonstrate that this conventional procedure leads to exaggerated estimates of increasing temperature variability and extremes. For example, the occurrence of "two-sigma extremes" would be overestimated by 48.2% compared to a given reference period of 30 years with time-invariant simulated Gaussian data. This corresponds to an increase from a 2.0% to 2.9% probability of such events. We derive an analytical correction revealing that these artifacts prevail in recent studies. Our analyses lead to a revision of earlier reports: For instance, we show that there is no evidence for a recent increase in normalized temperature variability. In conclusion, we provide an analytical pathway to describe changes in variability and extremes in climate observations and model simulations. Key Points Conventional normalization of spatiotemporal data sets with respect to a reference period induces artifacts Normalization-induced artifacts are most severe if variability or extremes are under scrutiny The study provides an analytical correction and accurate estimate of variability and extremes. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84956964216&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066307&partnerID=40&md5=f4a68b49335edfa2f6239f71ee926622
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8017
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Sippel S.,Zscheischler J.,Heimann M.,et al. Quantifying changes in climate variability and extremes: Pitfalls and their overcoming[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(22).