DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2017.1340257
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85026555968
论文题名: Evaluating the US Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization amidst early century uncertainty
作者: Galik C ; S ; , DeCarolis J ; F ; , Fell H
刊名: Climate Policy
ISSN: 1469-3062
EISSN: 1752-7457
出版年: 2017
卷: 17, 期: 8 起始页码: 1046
结束页码: 1056
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change mitigation
; climate change policies
; energy markets
; land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF)
; transportation sector
Scopus关键词: carbon emission
; climate change
; emission control
; energy market
; environmental policy
; forestry
; greenhouse gas
; land use change
; United States
Scopus学科分类: nvironmental Science: General Environmental Science
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Atmospheric Science
英文摘要: The recent change in US presidential administrations has introduced significant uncertainty about both domestic and international policy support for continued reductions in GHG emissions. This brief analysis estimates the potential climate ramifications of changing US leadership, contrasting the Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (MCS) released under the Obama Administration, with campaign statements, early executive actions, and prevailing market conditions to estimate potential emission pathways under the Trump Administration. The analysis highlights areas where GHG reductions are less robust to changing policy conditions, and offers brief recommendations for addressing emissions in the interim. It specifically finds that continued reductions in the electricity sector are less vulnerable to changes in federal policy than those in the built environment and land use sectors. Given the long-lived nature of investments in these latter two sectors, however, opportunities for near-term climate action by willing cities, states, private landowners, and non-profit organizations warrant renewed attention in this time of climate uncertainty. Key policy insights The recent US presidential election has already impacted mitigation goals and practices, injecting considerable uncertainty into domestic and international efforts to address climate change. A strategic assessment issued in the final days of the Obama Administration for how to reach long-term climate mitigation objectives provides a baseline from which to gauge potential changes under the Trump Administration. Though market trends may continue to foster emission declines in the energy sector, emission reductions in the land use sector and the built environment are subject to considerable uncertainty. Regardless of actions to scale back climate mitigation efforts, US emissions are likely to be flat in the coming years. Assuming that emissions remain constant under President Trump and that reductions resume afterwards to meet the Obama Administration mid-century targets in 2050, this near-term pause in reductions yields a difference in total emissions equivalent to 0.3–0.6 years of additional global greenhouse gas emissions, depending on the number of terms served by a Trump Administration. © 2017 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/80238
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Department of Public Administration, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States; Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States; Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Galik C,S,, DeCarolis J,et al. Evaluating the US Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization amidst early century uncertainty[J]. Climate Policy,2017-01-01,17(8)