DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066363
论文题名: Vulnerability of water availability in India due to climate change: A bottom-up probabilistic Budyko analysis
作者: Singh R. ; Kumar R.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8414
EISSN: 1944-8145
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 22 起始页码: 9799
结束页码: 9807
语种: 英语
英文关键词: bottom-up
; Budyko
; critical climate thresholds
; India
; vulnerability of water resources
; water availability
Scopus关键词: Evapotranspiration
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water resources
; Bottom up
; Budyko
; Critical climate thresholds
; India
; Water availability
; Climate change
; bottom-up approach
; climate change
; future prospect
; potential evapotranspiration
; precipitation (climatology)
; probability
; quantitative analysis
; spatial variation
; streamflow
; uncertainty analysis
; vulnerability
; water availability
; water management
; water planning
; water stress
; India
英文摘要: Quantifying the dependence of future water availability on changing climate is critical for water resources planning and management in water stressed countries like India. However, this remains a challenge as long-term streamflow data are scarce, and there are significant uncertainties regarding future climate change. We present a bottom-up probabilistic Budyko framework that estimates the vulnerability of available water to changing climate using three hydroclimatic variables: long-term precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and actual evapotranspiration. We assimilate these variables within a probabilistic Budyko framework to derive estimates of water availability and associated uncertainty. We then explore a large range of possible future climates to identify critical climate thresholds and their spatial variation across India. Based on this exploratory analysis, we find that southern India is most susceptible to changing climate with less than 10% decrease in precipitation causing a 25% decrease in water availability. Key Points We develop a bottom-up probabilistic Budyko framework and test it in a data scarce region, India We assess critical climate thresholds for vulnerability of water resources across India We find high susceptibility of southern India to decreasing precipitation. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84956954456&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066363&partnerID=40&md5=50d968fe54459dfa911b85c8fe31879c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8030
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad, Yeddumailaram, India
Recommended Citation:
Singh R.,Kumar R.. Vulnerability of water availability in India due to climate change: A bottom-up probabilistic Budyko analysis[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(22).