DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066483
论文题名: Spatially coherent trends of annual maximum daily precipitation in the United States
作者: Sun X. ; Lall U.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8415
EISSN: 1944-8146
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 22 起始页码: 9781
结束页码: 9789
语种: 英语
英文关键词: extreme precipitation
; hierarchical Bayesian clustering
; trends
Scopus关键词: Bayesian networks
; Daily precipitations
; Extreme precipitation
; Heterogeneous region
; Hierarchical bayesian
; Hierarchical Bayesian modeling
; Precipitation extremes
; Similar temporal patterns
; Trends
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Bayesian analysis
; cluster analysis
; diurnal variation
; extreme event
; heterogeneity
; hierarchical system
; identification method
; pattern recognition
; precipitation assessment
; spatiotemporal analysis
; trend analysis
; weather station
; Midwest
; United States
英文摘要: A new multilevel, hierarchical Bayesian model is developed to simultaneously identify clusters of stations with similar temporal patterns, the trend associated with each cluster and for the individual stations within each cluster. An application to the annual maximum daily precipitation in the United States for a common 70 year (1941-2010) period across the HADEX2 sites is presented. The model identifies statistically homogeneous regions, spatially clustering the data into groups according to the intensity and the trend. Partial pooling of model parameters for each group is considered. Spatially consistent trends are detected in the Midwest and Northeast U.S., at the cluster and at the station level. The new approach can dramatically improve trend identification for precipitation extremes; e.g., all 14 stations in the Midwest report a significant trend as opposed to only 4 stations based on single site analysis. The method is generally applicable for improving trend identification over a heterogeneous region. Key Points Develop a multilevel Bayesian model to formally identify temporal trends over a heterogeneous region Explore the homogeneity and identify the U.S. regions having significant trend on extreme precipitation. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84956944122&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066483&partnerID=40&md5=8e8eb27b1c0e625079a1fa017b2f337b
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8031
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Columbia Water Center, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York City, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Sun X.,Lall U.. Spatially coherent trends of annual maximum daily precipitation in the United States[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(22).