DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2016.1150250
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84962489932
论文题名: Achieving development and mitigation objectives through a decarbonization development pathway in South Africa
作者: Altieri K ; E ; , Trollip H ; , Caetano T ; , Hughes A ; , Merven B ; , Winkler H
刊名: Climate Policy
ISSN: 1469-3062
EISSN: 1752-7457
出版年: 2016
卷: 16 起始页码: S78
结束页码: S91
语种: 英语
英文关键词: development pathways
; economic models
; employment
; energy models
; GHG reductions
; mitigation scenarios
Scopus关键词: alternative energy
; developing world
; development strategy
; economic development
; emission control
; environmental economics
; environmental policy
; greenhouse gas
; photovoltaic system
; renewable resource
; solar power
; sustainable development
; wind power
; South Africa
Scopus学科分类: nvironmental Science: General Environmental Science
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Atmospheric Science
英文摘要: Achieving the international 2 °C limit climate policy requires stringent reductions in GHG emissions by mid-century, with some countries simultaneously facing development-related challenges. South Africa is a middle-income developing country with high rates of unemployment and high levels of poverty, as well as an emissions-intensive economy. South Africa takes into account an assessment of what a fair contribution to reducing global emissions might be, and is committed to a ‘peak, plateau and decline' emissions trajectory with absolute emissions specified for 2025 and 2030, while noting the need to address development imperatives. This work utilizes an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model (e-SAGE) linked to an energy-system optimization model (TIMES) to explore improving development metrics within a 14 GtCO2e cumulative energy sector carbon constraint through to 2050 for South Africa. The electricity sector decarbonizes by retiring coal-fired power plants or replacing with concentrated solar power, solar photovoltaics and wind generation. Industry and tertiary-sector growth remains strong throughout the time period, with reduced energy intensity via fuel-switching and efficiency improvements. From 2010 to 2050, the model results in the unemployment rate decreasing from 25% to 12%, and the percentage of people living below the poverty line decreasing from 49% to 18%. Total energy GHG emissions were reduced by 39% and per capita emissions decreased by 62%. Policy relevance Lower poverty and inequality are goals that cannot be subordinated to lower GHG emissions. Policy documents in South Africa outline objectives such as reducing poverty and inequality with a key focus on education and employment. In its climate policy and Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), South Africa is committed to a peak, plateau and decline GHG emissions trajectory. As in many developing countries, these policy goals require major transformations in the energy system while simultaneously increasing affordable access to safe and convenient energy services for those living in energy poverty. The modelled scenario in this work focuses on employment and poverty reduction under a carbon constraint, a novel combination with results that can provide information for a holistic climate and development policy framework. This study has focused on the long term, which is important in generating clear policy signals for the necessary large-scale investments. © 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/80364
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
Recommended Citation:
Altieri K,E,, Trollip H,et al. Achieving development and mitigation objectives through a decarbonization development pathway in South Africa[J]. Climate Policy,2016-01-01,16