DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2016.1155042
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961213056
论文题名: Assessing decarbonization pathways and their implications for energy security policies in Japan
作者: Oshiro K ; , Kainuma M ; , Masui T
刊名: Climate Policy
ISSN: 1469-3062
EISSN: 1752-7457
出版年: 2016
卷: 16 起始页码: S63
结束页码: S77
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ancillary benefit
; country studies
; emissions scenarios
; energy models
; energy policy
Scopus关键词: alternative energy
; carbon emission
; electrification
; energy efficiency
; energy policy
; environmental policy
; fossil fuel
; modeling
; nuclear power
; renewable resource
; Japan
Scopus学科分类: nvironmental Science: General Environmental Science
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Atmospheric Science
英文摘要: For countries without sufficient fossil fuel resources such as Japan, climate policies in the mid- to long term need to satisfy requirements not only for decarbonisation but also for energy security in the context of limitations on renewable energies and nuclear power. This study assesses the feasibility of decarbonization pathways to 2050 and their effects on energy security, considering the latest energy and climate policies in Japan using the AIM/Enduse model. The analysis illustrates that deep decarbonization by 2050 is technically feasible even without nuclear power based on three elements: energy efficiency improvements, low-carbon electricity and electrification in end-use sectors. These decarbonization pathways, in the long term, could also contribute to enhanced energy security, reducing import dependency to less than a half of the total primary energy and reducing import bills for fossil fuels by around 70% compared with the current level. Notably, renewable energies could play a strategically significant role in satisfying both climate and energy security requirements. In the mid-term (to 2030), however, although GHG emissions are reduced by 14–20% from 1990 levels, import dependency is relatively stable at today's levels, particularly without the restart of nuclear power. Given the limited potential for renewable energies in the mid-term, it is suggested that the availability of nuclear power will have negative impacts on carbon intensity and energy security, and policies to enhance the security of fossil fuels, including diversification of fuel sources and supply routes, will be required for the foreseeable future. Policy relevance Considering the scarcity of indigenous fossil fuel resources and the uncertain availability of nuclear power in Japan, renewable energy could play a strategically significant role in replacing unabated fossil fuels, which would contribute to satisfying both climate and energy security requirements in the long term. However, the renewable energy potential is insufficient to eliminate the requirement for fossil fuels by 2030; therefore the unavailability of nuclear power would affect energy security considerably. Thus, policies in the mid-term would still require enhancement of the energy security of fossil fuels, including the diversification of fuel sources and supply routes, as well as alleviation of the impacts of price volatility. © 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/80366
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Environment and Energy Division 1, Tokyo, Japan; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Oshiro K,, Kainuma M,, Masui T. Assessing decarbonization pathways and their implications for energy security policies in Japan[J]. Climate Policy,2016-01-01,16