DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.12.002
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84896880612
论文题名: Historic and future trends of vehicle emissions in Beijing, 1998-2020: A policy assessment for the most stringent vehicle emission control program in China
作者: Zhang S ; , Wu Y ; , Wu X ; , Li M ; , Ge Y ; , Liang B ; , Xu Y ; , Zhou Y ; , Liu H ; , Fu L ; , Hao J
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2014
卷: 89 起始页码: 216
结束页码: 229
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Air pollutant
; Beijing
; Emission control
; The EMBEV model
; Vehicle
Scopus关键词: Air pollutants
; Alternative fuel technologies
; Beijing
; Controlling vehicles
; Emission factor model
; Emission mitigation
; Heavy-duty diesel
; Light-duty gasoline vehicles
; Alternative fuels
; Emission control
; Reduction
; Roads and streets
; Uncertainty analysis
; Vehicles
; gasoline
; nitrogen oxide
; air quality
; atmospheric pollution
; emission control
; future prospect
; historical record
; megacity
; policy making
; pollution policy
; traffic emission
; trend analysis
; urban atmosphere
; air pollution control
; article
; China
; city
; diesel engine
; exhaust gas
; forecasting
; licence
; light
; policy
; priority journal
; retrospective study
; rural area
; traffic
; Beijing [China]
; China
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: As a pioneer in controlling vehicle emissions within China, Beijing released the Clean Air Action Plan 2013-2017 document in August 2013 to improve its urban air quality. It has put forward this plan containing the most stringent emission control policies and strategies to be adopted for on-road vehicles of Beijing. This paper estimates the historic and future trends and uncertainties in vehicle emissions of Beijing from 1998 to 2020 by applying a new emission factor model for the Beijing vehicle fleet (EMBEV). Our updated results show that total emissions of CO, THC, NOx and PM2.5 from the Beijing vehicle fleet are 507 (395-819) kt, 59.1 (41.2-90.5) kt, 74.7 (54.9-103.9) kt and 2.69 (1.91-4.17) kt, respectively, at a 95% confidence level. This represents significant reductions of 58%, 59%, 31% and 62%, respectively, relative to the total vehicle emissions in 1998. The past trends clearly posed a challenge to NOx emission mitigation for the Beijing vehicle fleet, especially in light of those increasing NOx emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) which have partly offset the reduction benefit from light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs). Because of recently announced vehicle emission controls to be adopted in Beijing, including tighter emissions standards, limitations on vehicle growth by more stringent license control, promotion of alternative fuel technologies (e.g., natural gas) and the scrappage of older vehicles, estimated vehicle emissions in Beijing will continue to be mitigated by 74% of CO, 68% of THC, 56% of NOx and 72% of PM2.5 in 2020 compared to 2010 levels. Considering that many of the megacities in China are facing tremendous pressures to mitigate emissions from on-road vehicles, our assessment will provide a timely case study of significance for policy-makers in China. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/80672
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: School of Environment, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China; China Automobile Technology and Research Center, Tianjin 300162, China; School of Mechanical and Vehicular Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China; Beijing Automobile Research Institute Co. Ltd., Beijing 100079, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhang S,, Wu Y,, Wu X,et al. Historic and future trends of vehicle emissions in Beijing, 1998-2020: A policy assessment for the most stringent vehicle emission control program in China[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2014-01-01,89