DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.10.017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84887392619
论文题名: Estimation of the caesium-137 source term from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant using a consistent joint assimilation of air concentration and deposition observations
作者: Winiarek V ; , Bocquet M ; , Duhanyan N ; , Roustan Y ; , Saunier O ; , Mathieu A
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2014
卷: 82 起始页码: 268
结束页码: 279
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric dispersion
; Data assimilation
; Fukushima accident
; Source estimation
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements
; Cesium
; Data processing
; Errors
; Fallout
; Nuclear power plants
; Radioisotopes
; Uncertainty analysis
; Activity concentration
; Atmospheric dispersion
; Data assimilation
; Estimation techniques
; Fukushima accidents
; Fukushima dai-ichi nuclear power plants
; Meteorological condition
; Source estimation
; Estimation
; cesium 137
; atmospheric pollution
; cesium isotope
; computer simulation
; concentration (composition)
; data set
; deposition
; dispersion
; estimation method
; measurement method
; meteorology
; nuclear power plant
; observational method
; pollutant source
; radioactive pollution
; radionuclide
; article
; atmospheric deposition
; atmospheric dispersion
; atmospheric transport
; dry deposition
; fallout
; Fukushima nuclear accident
; maximum likelihood method
; nuclear power plant
; particulate matter
; priority journal
; radiation measurement
; radioisotope decay
; wet deposition
; Fukushima
; Honshu
; Japan
; Tohoku
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: Inverse modelling techniques can be used to estimate the amount of radionuclides and the temporal profile of the source term released in the atmosphere during the accident of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. In Winiarek etal. (2012b), the lower bounds of the caesium-137 and iodine-131 source terms were estimated with such techniques, using activity concentration measurements. The importance of an objective assessment of prior errors (the observation errors and the background errors) was emphasised for a reliable inversion. In such critical context where the meteorological conditions can make the source term partly unobservable and where only a few observations are available, such prior estimation techniques are mandatory, the retrieved source term being very sensitive to this estimation.We propose to extend the use of these techniques to the estimation of prior errors when assimilating observations from several data sets. The aim is to compute an estimate of the caesium-137 source term jointly using all available data about this radionuclide, such as activity concentrations in the air, but also daily fallout measurements and total cumulated fallout measurements. It is crucial to properly and simultaneously estimate the background errors and the prior errors relative to each data set. A proper estimation of prior errors is also a necessary condition to reliably estimate the a posteriori uncertainty of the estimated source term. Using such techniques, we retrieve a total released quantity of caesium-137 in the interval 11.6-19.3PBq with an estimated standard deviation range of 15-20% depending on the method and the data sets. The "blind" time intervals of the source term have also been strongly mitigated compared to the first estimations with only activity concentration data. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/81053
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Université Paris-Est, CEREA, Joint Laboratory École des Ponts ParisTech and EDF R and D, Champs-sur-Marne, France; INRIA, Paris Rocquencourt Research Centre, France; Institut de Radioprotection et de SÛreté Nucléaire (IRSN), PRP-CRI, SESUC, BMTA, Fontenay-aux-Roses 92262, France
Recommended Citation:
Winiarek V,, Bocquet M,, Duhanyan N,et al. Estimation of the caesium-137 source term from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant using a consistent joint assimilation of air concentration and deposition observations[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2014-01-01,82