DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.10.012
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84887175524
论文题名: Analysis of uncertainties in the estimates of nitrous oxide and methane emissions in the UK's greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture
作者: Milne A ; E ; , Glendining M ; J ; , Bellamy P ; , Misselbrook T ; , Gilhespy S ; , Rivas Casado M ; , Hulin A ; , van Oijen M ; , Whitmore A ; P
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2014
卷: 82 起始页码: 94
结束页码: 105
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Agriculture
; Greenhouse gas inventory
; Methane
; Nitrous oxide
; Uncertainty
Scopus关键词: Emission factors
; Enteric fermentation
; Greenhouse gas inventory
; Inventory models
; Methane emissions
; Nitrous oxide
; Northern Ireland
; Uncertainty
; Agriculture
; Estimation
; Greenhouse gases
; Methane
; Monte Carlo methods
; Nitrogen oxides
; Uncertainty analysis
; methane
; nitrous oxide
; runoff
; agricultural practice
; emission inventory
; estimation method
; greenhouse gas
; methane
; Monte Carlo analysis
; nitrous oxide
; numerical model
; uncertainty analysis
; agriculture
; article
; correlation analysis
; cow
; exhaust gas
; fermentation
; greenhouse gas
; greenhouse gas inventory
; magnitude estimation method
; named inventories, questionnaires and rating scales
; nonhuman
; priority journal
; sensitivity analysis
; sheep
; uncertainty
; United Kingdom
; United Kingdom
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: The UK's greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture uses a model based on the IPCC Tier 1 and Tier 2 methods to estimate the emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture. The inventory calculations are disaggregated at country level (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland). Before now, no detailed assessment of the uncertainties in the estimates of emissions had been done. We used Monte Carlo simulation to do such an analysis. We collated information on the uncertainties of each of the model inputs. The uncertainties propagate through the model and result in uncertainties in the estimated emissions. Using a sensitivity analysis, we found that in England and Scotland the uncertainty in the emission factor for emissions from N inputs (EF1) affected uncertainty the most, but that in Wales and Northern Ireland, the emission factor for N leaching and runoff (EF5) had greater influence. We showed that if the uncertainty in any one of these emission factors is reduced by 50%, the uncertainty in emissions of nitrous oxide reduces by 10%. The uncertainty in the estimate for the emissions of methane emission factors for enteric fermentation in cows and sheep most affected the uncertainty in methane emissions. When inventories are disaggregated (as that for the UK is) correlation between separate instances of each emission factor will affect the uncertainty in emissions. As more countries move towards inventory models with disaggregation, it is important that the IPCC give firm guidance on this topic. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/81175
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Rothamsted Research, West Common, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, United Kingdom; Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedfordshire MK43 0AL, United Kingdom; Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB, United Kingdom; ADAS UK LTD, Pendeford House, Pendeford Business Park, Wobaston Road, Wolverhampton WV9 5AP, United Kingdom; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Milne A,E,, Glendining M,et al. Analysis of uncertainties in the estimates of nitrous oxide and methane emissions in the UK's greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2014-01-01,82