DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.02.041
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84895955123
论文题名: The influence of future non-mitigated road transport emissions on regional ozone exceedences at global scale
作者: Williams J ; E ; , Hodnebrog T ; , van Velthoven P ; F ; J ; , Berntsen T ; K ; , Dessens O ; , Gauss M ; , Grewe V ; , Isaksen I ; S ; A ; , Olivié D ; , Prather M ; J ; , Tang Q
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2014
卷: 89 起始页码: 633
结束页码: 641
语种: 英语
英文关键词: 3D global chemistry modelling
; Air quality
; Future trends
; Road traffic emissions
Scopus关键词: Air cleaners
; Air quality
; Nitric oxide
; Ozone
; Ships
; Troposphere
; Chemical production
; Future trends
; International shippings
; Multi-model ensemble
; Northern Hemispheres
; Regional air quality
; Road traffic emissions
; Road transport emissions
; Estimation
; nitric oxide
; ozone
; air quality
; anthropogenic source
; European Commission
; nitric oxide
; nitrous oxide
; ozone
; road transport
; seasonality
; shipping
; three-dimensional modeling
; traffic emission
; troposphere
; air quality
; article
; Asia
; atmospheric transport
; China
; degradation
; environmental exposure
; global change
; human
; Middle East
; Northern Hemisphere
; ozone layer
; priority journal
; seasonal variation
; summer
; titrimetry
; trend study
; United States
; Western Europe
; winter
; China
; Middle East
; United States
; Western Europe
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: Road Transport emissions (RTE) are a significant anthropogenic global NOx source responsible for enhancing the chemical production of tropospheric ozone (O3) in the lower troposphere. Here we analyse a multi-model ensemble which adopts the realistic SRES A1B emission scenario and a "policy-failure" scenario for RTE (A1B_HIGH) for the years 2000, 2025 and 2050. Analysing the regional trends in RTE NOx estimates shows by 2025 that differences of 0.2-0.3TgNyr-1 occur for most of the world regions between the A1B and A1B_HIGH estimates, except for Asia where there is a larger difference of ~1.4TgNyr-1. For 2050 these differences fall to ~0.1TgNyr-1, with shipping emissions becoming as important as RTE. Analysing the seasonality in near-surface O3 from the multi-model ensemble monthly mean values shows a large variability in the projected changes between different regions. For Western Europe and the Eastern US although the peak O3 mixing ratios decrease by ~10% in 2050, there is an associated degradation during wintertime due to less direct titration from nitric oxide. For regions such as Eastern China, although total anthropogenic NOx emissions are reduced from 2025 to 2050, there is no real improvement in peak O3 levels. By normalizing the seasonal ensemble means of near-surface O3 (0-500m) with the recommended European Commission (EC) exposure limit to derive an exceedence ratio (ER), we show that ER values greater than 1.0 occur across a wide area in the Northern Hemisphere for boreal summer using the year 2000 emissions. When adopting the future A1B_HIGH estimates, the Middle East exhibits the worst regional air quality, closely followed by Asia. For these regions the area of exceedence (ER>1.0) for 2025 is ~40% and ~25% of the total area of each region, respectively. Comparing simulations employing the various scenarios shows that unmitigated RTE increases the area of exceedence in the Middle East by ~6% and, for Asia, by ~2% of the total regional areas. For the USA the area of exceedence approximately doubles in 2025 as a result of unmitigated RTE, with the most exceedences occurring in the southern USA. The effects across the various regions implies that unmitigated RTE would have a detrimental effect on regional health for 2025, and potentially offset the benefits introduced by mitigating e.g. international shipping emissions. By 2050 the further mitigation of non-transport emissions results in much cleaner air meaning that mitigation of RTE is not critical for achieving the defined limits in many world regions. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/81304
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Wilhelminalaan 10, 3732 GK De Bilt, Netherlands; Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway; Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway; Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom; UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; German Centre for Air and Space Travel, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; Météo-France, GAME/CNRM, Toulouse, France; Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, United States; Department of Biological and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, United States
Recommended Citation:
Williams J,E,, Hodnebrog T,et al. The influence of future non-mitigated road transport emissions on regional ozone exceedences at global scale[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2014-01-01,89