globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.10.071
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84946563437
论文题名:
Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions
作者: Velders G; J; M; , Fahey D; W; , Daniel J; S; , Andersen S; O; , McFarland M
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2015
卷: 123
起始页码: 200
结束页码: 209
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate ; CO2-eq emissions ; HFC ; Montreal Protocol ; Radiative forcing
Scopus关键词: Air conditioning ; Atmospheric radiation ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; Developing countries ; Economic and social effects ; Greenhouse gases ; Ozone ; Population statistics ; Atmospheric abundance ; Climate ; Gross domestic products ; HFC ; Hydrofluorocarbons ; Montreal Protocols ; Ozone depleting substances ; Radiative forcings ; Fluorocarbons ; carbon dioxide ; fluorinated hydrocarbon ; air conditioning ; atmospheric deposition ; baseline conditions ; carbon dioxide ; climate change ; developing world ; emission control ; European Union ; global climate ; greenhouse gas ; hydrochlorofluorocarbon ; Montreal Protocol ; radiative forcing ; regional climate ; Africa ; air conditioning ; Article ; Asia ; carbon footprint ; China ; climate ; climate change ; developed country ; developing country ; European Union ; freezing ; greenhouse gas ; gross national product ; India ; Japan ; Middle East ; North America ; priority journal ; radiative forcing ; United Nations ; United States ; China ; Japan ; Middle East ; North Africa ; North America
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology ; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes ; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries. © 2015 The Authors.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/81441
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作者单位: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, Bilthoven, Netherlands; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States; Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, Washington, DC, United States; Chemours, Wilmington, DE, United States

Recommended Citation:
Velders G,J,M,et al. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2015-01-01,123
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