DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065765
论文题名: Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa
作者: Maidment R.I. ; Allan R.P. ; Black E.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8541
EISSN: 1944-8272
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 19 起始页码: 8155
结束页码: 8164
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Africa
; observations
; precipitation
; simulations
; trends
; variability
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Gages
; Oceanography
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Rain gages
; Surface waters
; Africa
; Observations
; Simulations
; Trends
; Variability
; Rain
; climate modeling
; data set
; precipitation intensity
; raingauge
; sea surface temperature
; spatiotemporal analysis
; trend analysis
; Walker circulation
; Central Africa
; East Africa
; Pacific Ocean
; Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]
; Pomatiopsis californica
英文摘要: Multiple observational data sets and atmosphere-only simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are analyzed to characterize recent rainfall variability and trends over Africa focusing on 1983-2010. Data sets exhibiting spurious variability, linked in part to a reduction in rain gauge density, were identified. The remaining observations display coherent increases in annual Sahel rainfall (29 to 43 mm yr-1 per decade), decreases in March-May East African rainfall (-14 to -65 mm yr-1 per decade), and increases in annual Southern Africa rainfall (32 to 41 mm yr-1 per decade). However, Central Africa annual rainfall trends vary in sign (-10 to +39 mm yr-1 per decade). For Southern Africa, observed and sea surface temperature (SST)-forced model simulated rainfall variability are significantly correlated (r~0.5) and linked to SST patterns associated with recent strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation. Key Points Rainfall trends from multiple observational data sets are not consistent in some regions Spurious rainfall trends are linked to changes in gauge density over time SST patterns play a strong role in determining Africa-wide rainfall trends since 1983 © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84947023537&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065765&partnerID=40&md5=a8aac5e9125a83c6aed6bcd79528d278
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8157
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Maidment R.I.,Allan R.P.,Black E.. Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(19).