DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.01.062
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84921902431
论文题名: Global impacts of surface ozone changes on crop yields and land use
作者: Chuwah C ; , van Noije T ; , van Vuuren D ; P ; , Stehfest E ; , Hazeleger W
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2015
卷: 106 起始页码: 11
结束页码: 23
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Air pollution control
; Climate change mitigation
; Emission scenarios
; Land use change
; Ozone crop damage
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Air pollution control
; Atmospheric chemistry
; Atmospheric radiation
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Crops
; Cultivation
; Land use
; Ozone
; Pollution
; Pollution control
; Air pollutant emission
; Climate change mitigation
; Crop damages
; Emission scenario
; Integrated assessment models
; Land-use change
; Ozone concentration
; Worst case scenario
; Air pollution
; biofuel
; carbon
; ozone
; assessment method
; atmospheric pollution
; carbon cycle
; carbon dioxide
; crop yield
; future prospect
; global change
; land use change
; ozone
; radiative forcing
; yield response
; air pollution control
; Article
; atmospheric dispersion
; carbon cycle
; cereal
; climate change
; crop production
; environmental impact assessment
; environmental planning
; grass
; harvest
; land use
; maize
; ozone layer
; plant root
; plant tuber
; priority journal
; rice
; simulation
; sugarcane
; Asia
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: Exposure to surface ozone has detrimental impacts on vegetation and crop yields. In this study, we estimate ozone impacts on crop production and subsequent impacts on land use in the 2005-2050 period using results of the TM5 atmospheric chemistry and IMAGE integrated assessment model. For the crops represented in IMAGE, we compute relative yield losses based on published exposure-response functions. We examine scenarios with either constant or declining emission factors in a weak climate policy future (radiative forcing target of 6.0W/m2 at the end of the century), as well as co-benefits of stringent climate policy (targeted at 2.6W/m2). Without a large decrease in air pollutant emissions, higher ozone concentrations could lead to an increase in crop damage of up to 20% locally in 2050 compared to the situation in which the changes in ozone are not accounted for. This may lead to a 2.5% global increase in crop area, and a regional increase of 8.9% in Asia. Implementation of air pollution policies could limit crop yield losses due to ozone to maximally 10% in 2050 in the most affected regions. Similar effects can be obtained as a result of co-benefits from climate policy (reducing ozone precursor emissions). We also evaluated the impact of the corresponding land-use changes on the carbon cycle. Under the worst-case scenario analysed in this study, future ozone increases are estimated to increase the cumulative net CO2 emissions between 2005 and 2050 by about 3.7PgC, which corresponds to about 10% of baseline land use emissions over the same period. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/81862
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, Netherlands; Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Utrecht University, Department of Geosciences, Utrecht, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Chuwah C,, van Noije T,, van Vuuren D,et al. Global impacts of surface ozone changes on crop yields and land use[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2015-01-01,106