DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.02.019
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84922525804
论文题名: Projections of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios
作者: Lee J ; -B ; , Cha J ; -S ; , Hong S ; -C ; , Choi J ; -Y ; , Myoung J ; -S ; , Park R ; J ; , Woo J ; -H ; , Ho C ; , Han J ; -S ; , Song C ; -K
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2015
卷: 106 起始页码: 335
结束页码: 346
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Air quality
; Climate change
; East asia
; ICAMS
; Ozone
Scopus关键词: Air quality
; Climate models
; Developing countries
; Ozone
; Air quality modeling
; East Asia
; Future climate scenarios
; ICAMS
; Regional climate changes
; Sensitivity Simulation
; Spatial and temporal variability
; Surface ozone concentrations
; Climate change
; ozone
; air quality
; atmospheric modeling
; atmospheric pollution
; concentration (composition)
; developing world
; emission
; nitrogen oxides
; numerical model
; ozone
; spatiotemporal analysis
; air quality
; Article
; Asia
; China
; climate change
; concentration (parameters)
; developing country
; environmental monitoring
; Japan
; latitude
; longitude
; priority journal
; simulation
; South Korea
; spatial analysis
; summer
; surface property
; temporal analysis
; Far East
; Japan
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: We have developed the Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one-way nesting of global-regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone concentrations over East Asia under future climate scenarios. Model simulations have been conducted for the present period of 1996-2005 to evaluate the performance of ICAMS. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reproduced the observed monthly mean concentrations at sites in East Asia with high R2 values (0.4-0.9), indicating a successful simulation to capture both spatial and temporal variability. We then performed several model simulations with the six IPCC SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2) for the next three periods, 2016-2025 (the 2020s), 2046-2055 (the 2050s), and 2091-2100 (the 2090s). The model results show that the projected changes of the annual daily mean maximum eight-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations in summertime for East Asia are in the range of 2-8ppb,-3 to 8ppb, and-7 to 9ppb for the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2090s, respectively, and are primarily determined based on the emission changes of NOx and NMVOC. The maximum increases in the annual DM8H surface ozone and high-ozone events occur in the 2020s for all scenarios except for A2, implying that the air quality over East Asia is likely to get worse in the near future period (the 2020s) than in the far future periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). The changes in the future environment based on IPCC SRES scenarios would also influence the change in the occurrences of high-concentrations events more greatly than that of the annual DM8H surface ozone concentrations. Sensitivity simulations show that the emissions increase is the key factor in determining future regional surface ozone concentrations in the case of a developing country, China, whereas a developed country, Japan would be influenced more greatly by effects of the regional climate change than the increase in emissions. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/81939
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate and Air Quality Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research, Incheon, South Korea; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University Graduate School, Seoul, South Korea; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Department of New Technology and Fusion, Kunkuk University, Seoul, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Lee J,-B,, Cha J,et al. Projections of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2015-01-01,106