DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065402
论文题名: The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty
作者: Duputel Z. ; Jiang J. ; Jolivet R. ; Simons M. ; Rivera L. ; Ampuero J.-P. ; Riel B. ; Owen S.E. ; Moore A.W. ; Samsonov S.V. ; Ortega Culaciati F. ; Minson S.E.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8578
EISSN: 1944-8309
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 19 起始页码: 7949
结束页码: 7957
语种: 英语
英文关键词: 1877 Chile seismic gap
; 2014 Iquique earthquake
; Bayesian inversion
; kinematic source model
; prediction uncertainty
; slow slip
Scopus关键词: Capillary flow
; Forecasting
; Geophysics
; Kinematics
; Reactor cores
; Seismology
; Uncertainty analysis
; Bayesian inversion
; Prediction uncertainty
; Seismic gaps
; Slow slip
; Source modeling
; Earthquakes
; aftershock
; Bayesian analysis
; earthquake event
; earthquake magnitude
; earthquake rupture
; foreshock
; kinematics
; prediction
; seismic data
; slip
; spatiotemporal analysis
; subduction zone
; uncertainty analysis
; Chile
; Iquique
; Tarapaca
英文摘要: The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region. Key Points A Bayesian ensemble of kinematic slip models is constructed using geodetic, tsunami and seismic data The earthquake involved a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought The main asperity is located downdip of the foreshock activity and updip of high-frequency sources © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84947019830&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL065402&partnerID=40&md5=0e3c8a38cb8292fe8372cd6646708885
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8194
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institut de Physique du Globe de Strasbourg, Université de Strasbourg/EOST, CNRS, Strasbourg, France
Recommended Citation:
Duputel Z.,Jiang J.,Jolivet R.,et al. The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(19).