DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.12.019
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84920149849
论文题名: Predicting onset and duration of airborne allergenic pollen season in the United States
作者: Zhang Y ; , Bielory L ; , Cai T ; , Mi Z ; , Georgopoulos P
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2015
卷: 103 起始页码: 297
结束页码: 306
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Allergy
; Model
; Pollen season
; Season length
; Start date
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Models
; Simulated annealing
; Annual mean temperatures
; Growing degree-days
; Industrialized countries
; Long term observations
; Monitoring stations
; Pollen season
; Season length
; Stepwise regression
; Allergies
; pollen antigen
; allergy
; atmospheric pollution
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; industrial agglomeration
; pollen
; precipitation (climatology)
; regression analysis
; seasonal variation
; Artemisia vulgaris
; Article
; birch
; birch pollen
; controlled study
; grass
; grass pollen
; latitude
; meteorology
; mugwort pollen
; oak
; oak pollen
; photoperiodicity
; pollen
; ragweed
; ragweed pollen
; season
; spring
; summer
; United States
; United States
; Ambrosia
; Artemisia
; Artemisia vulgaris
; Betula
; Poaceae
; Quercus
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: Allergenic pollen is one of the main triggers of Allergic Airway Disease (AAD) affecting 5%-30% of the population in industrialized countries. A modeling framework has been developed using correlation and collinearity analyses, simulated annealing, and stepwise regression based on nationwide observations of airborne pollen counts and climatic factors to predict the onsets and durations of allergenic pollen seasons of representative trees, weeds and grass in the contiguous United States. Main factors considered are monthly, seasonal and annual mean temperatures and accumulative precipitations, latitude, elevation, Growing Degree Day (GDD), Frost Free Day (FFD), Start Date (SD) and Season Length (SL) in the previous year. The estimated mean SD and SL for birch (Betula), oak (Quercus), ragweed (Ambrosia), mugwort (Artemisia) and grass (Poaceae) pollen season in 1994-2010 are mostly within 0-6 days of the corresponding observations for the majority of the National Allergy Bureau (NAB) monitoring stations across the contiguous US. The simulated spatially resolved maps for onset and duration of allergenic pollen season in the contiguous US are consistent with the long term observations. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/82070
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute (EOHSI), Rutgers University, 170 Frelinghuysen Rd., Piscataway, NJ, United States; Department of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, Rutgers University, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, Piscataway, NJ, United States; Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, Rutgers University, 98 Brett Rd., Piscataway, NJ, United States; Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, 14 College Farm Rd., New Brunswick, NJ, United States; Department of Medicine, Section of Allergy and Immunology, Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhang Y,, Bielory L,, Cai T,et al. Predicting onset and duration of airborne allergenic pollen season in the United States[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2015-01-01,103