| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL064992
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| 论文题名: | Probabilistic infrasound propagation using realistic atmospheric perturbations |
| 作者: | Smets P.S.M.; Evers L.G.; Näsholm S.P.; Gibbons S.J.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8597
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| EISSN: | 1944-8328
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:15 | | 起始页码: | 6510
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| 结束页码: | 6517
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | atmospheric perturbations
; error variances
; infrasound
; propagation modeling
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| Scopus关键词: | Acoustic wave propagation
; Balloons
; Errors
; Mine explosions
; Ray tracing
; Ultrasonic velocity measurement
; Atmospheric perturbations
; Error variance
; European centre for medium-range weather forecasts
; Infrasound
; Northern sweden
; Point estimate
; Propagation modeling
; Wind strength
; Weather forecasting
; atmospheric modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; perturbation
; prediction
; ray tracing
; sound propagation
; weather forecasting
; wind direction
; Aitik Mine
; Norrbotten
; Norway
; Sweden
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| 英文摘要: | This study demonstrates probabilistic infrasound propagation modeling using realistic perturbations. The ensembles of perturbed analyses, provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), include error variances of both model and assimilated observations. Ensemble spread profiles indicate a yearly mean effective sound speed variation of up to 8 ms-1 in the stratosphere, exceeding occasionally 25 ms-1 for a single ensemble set. It is shown that errors in point estimates of effective sound speed are dominated by variations in wind strength and direction. One year of large mining explosions in the Aitik mine, northern Sweden, observed at infrasound array IS37 in northern Norway are simulated using 3-D ray tracing. Probabilistic propagation modeling using the ensembles demonstrates that small-scale fluctuations are not always necessary to improve the match between predictions and observations. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84940446663&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064992&partnerID=40&md5=7bc9804c9f5cf37bd8a87b9e8beb4bd0
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8213
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Department of Geoscience and Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Smets P.S.M.,Evers L.G.,Näsholm S.P.,et al. Probabilistic infrasound propagation using realistic atmospheric perturbations[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(15).
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