DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064833
论文题名: Decadal hindcasts initialized using observed surface wind stress: Evaluation and prediction out to 2024
作者: Thoma M. ; Greatbatch R.J. ; Kadow C. ; Gerdes R.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8600
EISSN: 1944-8331
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 15 起始页码: 6454
结束页码: 6461
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5
; decadal prediction
; hiatus
; skill scores
Scopus关键词: Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Wind stress
; CMIP5
; Decadal predictions
; Evaluation and predictions
; Greenhouse-gas forcing
; Hiatus
; Initialization procedures
; Skill Score
; Surface air temperatures
; Forecasting
; air temperature
; atmospheric forcing
; atmospheric modeling
; decadal variation
; global warming
; hiatus
; hindcasting
; wind stress
英文摘要: We use surface air temperature to evaluate the decadal forecast skill of the fully coupled Max Planck Institut Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) initialized using only surface wind stress applied to the ocean component of the model (Modini: Model initialization by partially coupled spin-up). Our analysis shows that the greenhouse gas forcing alone results in a significant forecast skill on the 2-5 and 6-9 year range even for uninitialized hindcasts. For the first forecast year, the forecast skill of Modini is generally comparable with previous initialization procedures applied to MPI-ESM. But only Modini is able to generate a significant skill (correlation) in the tropical Pacific for a 2-5 year (and to a lesser extent for a 6-9 year) hindcast. Modini is also better able to capture the observed hiatus in global warming in hindcast mode than the other methods. Finally, we present forecasts for 2015 and the average of years 2016-2019 and 2020-2024, predicting an end to the hiatus. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84940446510&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064833&partnerID=40&md5=fc5ade7845a2204772f0f8cbd464682c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8216
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Thoma M.,Greatbatch R.J.,Kadow C.,et al. Decadal hindcasts initialized using observed surface wind stress: Evaluation and prediction out to 2024[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(15).