globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.12.023
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85004081578
论文题名:
Combined use of land use regression and BenMAP for estimating public health benefits of reducing PM2.5 in Tianjin, China
作者: Chen L; , Shi M; , Li S; , Bai Z; , Wang Z
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2017
卷: 152
起始页码: 16
结束页码: 23
语种: 英语
英文关键词: BenMAP ; Land use regression ; PM2.5 ; Public health benefit ; Tianjin
Scopus关键词: Air quality ; Air quality standards ; Cardiology ; Diseases ; Economics ; Emergency rooms ; Health ; Hospitals ; Population statistics ; Public health ; Pulmonary diseases ; Regression analysis ; Statistical methods ; BenMAP ; Cardio-vascular disease ; Emergency departments ; Health benefits ; High spatial resolution ; Land use regression ; Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) ; Tianjin ; Land use ; air quality ; cardiovascular disease ; concentration (composition) ; confidence interval ; estimation method ; health impact ; land use change ; morbidity ; mortality ; particulate matter ; population density ; public health ; regression analysis ; respiratory disease ; software ; spatial resolution ; air quality ; Article ; cardiovascular disease ; China ; emergency ward ; health impact assessment ; human ; ICD-10 ; industrial area ; land use ; land use regression ; morbidity ; mortality ; particulate matter ; population density ; priority journal ; public health ; respiratory tract disease ; surface property ; China ; Tianjin
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology ; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes ; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: To assess the public health benefits of reducing PM2.5 in Tianjin, we created an annual air quality surface with a land use regression (LUR) model conducted at a high spatial resolution (1 km). The predictors included in the final model were population density, road length within a 1000 m buffer, industrial land area within a 2000m buffer and distance to the coast. The fitting R2 and the leave-one-out-cross-validation (LOOCV) R2 of the PM2.5 LUR models were 0.78 and 0.73, respectively, suggesting that the predicted PM2.5 concentrations fitted well with the measured values for the entire year. Daily air quality surfaces were established based on historic concentration data and interpolation method. We evaluated avoided cases of mortality and morbidity in Tianjin, assuming achievement of China's current air quality daily and annual standards (No. GB3095-2012). Reducing the daily average PM2.5 to the daily Class II standard (75 μg/m3), the avoided emergency department visits, the deaths for cardiovascular disease and the deaths for respiratory disease are 85,000 (95% confidence interval (CI), 17,000–150,000), 2000 (95% CI, 920–3100) and 280 (95% CI, 94–460) per year respectively, and the monetary values are 23–42 million yuan, 180–4800 million yuan and 25–670 million yuan per year in 2015 yuan year respectively. Reducing the annual average PM2.5 to the annual Class II standard (35 μg/m3), the avoided emergency department visits, the deaths for cardiovascular disease and the deaths for respiratory disease are 59,000 (95% CI, 12,000–110,000), 1400 (95% CI, 640–2100) and 200 (95% CI, 66–320) per year respectively, and the monetary values are 16–29 million yuan, 130 to 3400 million yuan and 18 to 480 million yuan per year in 2015 yuan year respectively. © 2016
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/82215
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: College of Urban and Environmental Science, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin, China; Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Chen L,, Shi M,, Li S,et al. Combined use of land use regression and BenMAP for estimating public health benefits of reducing PM2.5 in Tianjin, China[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2017-01-01,152
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