Air quality
; Climate models
; Emission control
; Particles (particulate matter)
; Chemical transport models
; Emission reduction policies
; IMPACT2C project
; Particulate Matter
; Particulate matter air pollution
; Regional chemical transport model
; Regional climate models
; Regional climate simulation
; Climate change
; ammonia
; nitrate
; sulfate
; anthropogenic effect
; atmospheric pollution
; climate change
; climate modeling
; concentration (composition)
; emission control
; particulate matter
; project design
; regional climate
; temperature effect
; air pollution
; Article
; climate change
; Europe
; global climate
; greenhouse effect
; particulate matter
; priority journal
; simulation
; Benelux
; France
; Spain
Scopus学科分类:
Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要:
In the framework of the IMPACT2C project, we have evaluated the future European particulate matter concentrations under the influence of climate change and anthropogenic emission reductions. To do so, 30-year simulations for present and future scenarios were performed with an ensemble of four regional Chemical Transport Models. +2 �C scenarios were issued from different regional climate simulations belonging to the CORDEX experiment (RCP4.5 scenario). Comparing present day simulations to observations shows that these simulations meet the requested quality criteria even if some biases do exist. Also, we showed that using regional climate models instead of meteorological reanalysis was not critical for the quality of our simulations. Present day as well as future scenarios show the large variability between models associated with different meteorology and process parameterizations. Future projections of PM concentrations show a large reduction of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations in a +2 �C climate over the European continent (especially over Benelux), which can be mostly attributed to emission reduction policies. Under a current legislation scenario, annual PM10 could be reduced by between 1.8 and 2.9 μg m−3(14.1–20.4%). If maximum technologically feasible emission reductions were implemented, further reductions of 1.4–1.9 μg m−3(18.6–20.9%) are highlighted. Changes due to a +2 �C warming, in isolation from emission changes, are in general much weaker (−1.1 to +0.4 μg m−3,-0.3 to +5.1% for annual PM10 averaged over the European domain). Even if large differences exist between models, we have determined that the decrease of PM over Europe associated with emission reduction is a robust result. The patterns of PM changes resulting from climate change (for example the increase of PM over Spain and southern France and the decrease of PM10 over eastern Europe) are also robustly predicted even if its amplitude remains weak compared to changes associated with emission reductions. � 2017 Elsevier Ltd
LSCE/IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; LISA/IPSL, Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Syst�mes Atmosph�riques, UMR CNRS 7583, Universit� Paris Est Cr�teil (UPEC) et Universit� Paris Diderot (UPD), France; CNRM-GAME, M�t�o-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; EMEP MSC-W, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrk�ping, Sweden; INERIS, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France; Uni Research, The Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Lacressonni�re G,, Watson L,, Gauss M,et al. Particulate matter air pollution in Europe in a +2 �C warming world[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2017-01-01,154