globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064529
论文题名:
The effects of climate model similarity on probabilistic climate projections and the implications for local, risk-based adaptation planning
作者: Steinschneider S.; McCrary R.; Mearns L.O.; Brown C.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8650
EISSN: 1944-8381
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期:12
起始页码: 5014
结束页码: 5022
语种: 英语
英文关键词: adaptation ; climate model genealogy ; intermodel correlation
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; History ; Probability density function ; Risk perception ; Water supply ; adaptation ; Climate information ; Climate related risks ; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ; Model correlation ; Probabilistic climate projections ; Probability density function (pdf) ; Water shortages ; Climate models ; adaptive management ; climate change ; climate modeling ; correlation ; ensemble forecasting ; future prospect ; local planning ; probability density function ; risk assessment ; water use ; United States
英文摘要: Approaches for probability density function (pdf) development of future climate often assume that different climate models provide independent information, despite model similarities that stem from a common genealogy (models with shared code or developed at the same institution). Here we use an ensemble of projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to develop probabilistic climate information, with and without an accounting of intermodel correlations, for seven regions across the United States. We then use the pdfs to estimate midcentury climate-related risks to a water utility in one of the regions. We show that the variance of climate changes is underestimated across all regions if model correlations are ignored, and in some cases, the mean change shifts as well. When coupled with impact models of the hydrology and infrastructure of a water utility, the underestimated likelihood of large climate changes significantly alters the quantification of risk for water shortages by midcentury. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84940075447&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064529&partnerID=40&md5=d4dc8c2c963c9ce3b28f6c0dd4476239
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8266
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States

Recommended Citation:
Steinschneider S.,McCrary R.,Mearns L.O.,et al. The effects of climate model similarity on probabilistic climate projections and the implications for local, risk-based adaptation planning[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(12).
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