Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part I. model evaluation for the current decadal simulations
Aerosols
; Air quality
; Atmospheric radiation
; Earth atmosphere
; Gases
; Mixing
; Nitrogen oxides
; Organic carbon
; Quality control
; Sulfur dioxide
; Volatile organic compounds
; Wind
; Aerosol indirect effect
; CESM/CAM5
; Earth system model
; Model evaluation
; Representative concentration pathways
; Climate models
; ammonia
; black carbon
; carbon monoxide
; chloride
; nitrate
; nitric acid
; nitrogen dioxide
; organic carbon
; ozone
; sulfate
; sulfur dioxide
; volatile agent
; aerosol
; air quality
; ammonia
; anthropogenic effect
; atmospheric modeling
; black carbon
; carbon emission
; climate modeling
; cloud radiative forcing
; concentration (composition)
; environmental policy
; nitric acid
; organic carbon
; ozone
; trace gas
; volatile organic compound
; volcanic cloud
; wind velocity
; aerosol
; air quality
; Article
; atmosphere
; climate
; cloud
; community earth system model
; concentration (parameters)
; current decadal simulation
; European
; evaluation study
; gas
; human
; meteorological phenomena
; North Carolina
; particulate matter
; priority journal
; radiation
; seasonal variation
; simulation
; surface property
; uncertainty
; waste component removal
; Europe
; North Carolina
; United States
Scopus学科分类:
Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要:
A version of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU) is used to simulate the current and future atmosphere following the representative concentration partway scenarios for stabilization of radiative forcing at 4.5�W�m−2(RCP4.5) and radiative forcing of 8.5�W�m−2(RCP8.5). Part I describes the results from a comprehensive evaluation of current decadal simulations. Radiation and most meteorological variables are well simulated in CESM-NCSU. Cloud parameters are not as well simulated due in part to the tuning of model radiation and general biases in cloud variables common to all global chemistry-climate models. The concentrations of most inorganic aerosol species (i.e., SO4 2-, NH4 +, and NO3 −) are well simulated with normalized mean biases (NMBs) typically less than 20%. However, some notable exceptions are European NH4 +, which is overpredicted by 33.0–42.2% due to high NH3emissions and irreversible coarse mode condensation, and Cl−, that is negatively impacted by errors in emissions driven by wind speed and overpredicted HNO3. Carbonaceous aerosols are largely underpredicted following the RCP scenarios due to low emissions of black carbon, organic carbon, and anthropogenic volatile compounds in the RCP inventory and efficient wet removal. This results in underpredictions of PM2.5and PM10by 6.4–55.7%. The column mass abundances are reasonably well simulated. Larger biases occur in surface mixing ratios of trace gases in CESM-NCSU, likely due to numerical diffusion from the coarse grid spacing of the CESM-NCSU simulations or errors in the magnitudes and vertical structure of emissions. This is especially true for SO2and NO2. The mixing ratio of O3is overpredicted by 38.9–76.0% due to the limitations in the O3deposition scheme used in CESM and insufficient titration resulted from large underpredictions in NO2. Despite these limitations, CESM-NCSU reproduces reasonably well the current atmosphere in terms of radiation, clouds, meteorology, trace gases, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions, making it suitable for future climate simulations. � 2016 Elsevier Ltd
Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Glotfelty T,, He J,, Zhang Y. Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part I. model evaluation for the current decadal simulations[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2017-01-01,152