DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.02.047
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85042762912
论文题名: Uncertainties in models of tropospheric ozone based on Monte Carlo analysis: Tropospheric ozone burdens, atmospheric lifetimes and surface distributions
作者: Derwent R ; G ; , Parrish D ; D ; , Galbally I ; E ; , Stevenson D ; S ; , Doherty R ; M ; , Naik V ; , Young P ; J
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2018
卷: 180 起始页码: 93
结束页码: 102
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric lifetimes
; Global tropospheric models
; Seasonal cycles
; Surface ozone
; Tropospheric burdens
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric chemistry
; Boundary layers
; Carbon monoxide
; Meteorology
; Methane
; Monte Carlo methods
; Ozone
; Ozone layer
; Troposphere
; Uncertainty analysis
; Atmospheric lifetime
; Chemistry transport model
; Chemistry-climate models
; Marine boundary layers
; Monte Carlo estimates
; Seasonal cycle
; Surface ozone
; Tropospheric models
; Climate models
; atmospheric chemistry
; atmospheric modeling
; boundary layer
; climate modeling
; global change
; Lagrangian analysis
; marine environment
; mixing
; Monte Carlo analysis
; ozone
; seasonal variation
; troposphere
; uncertainty analysis
; Australia
; California
; Cape Grim
; Connacht
; Galway [(CNT) Connacht]
; Ireland
; Mace Head
; Tasmania
; Trinidad Head
; United States
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: Recognising that global tropospheric ozone models have many uncertain input parameters, an attempt has been made to employ Monte Carlo sampling to quantify the uncertainties in model output that arise from global tropospheric ozone precursor emissions and from ozone production and destruction in a global Lagrangian chemistry-transport model. Ninety eight quasi-randomly Monte Carlo sampled model runs were completed and the uncertainties were quantified in tropospheric burdens and lifetimes of ozone, carbon monoxide and methane, together with the surface distribution and seasonal cycle in ozone. The results have shown a satisfactory degree of convergence and provide a first estimate of the likely uncertainties in tropospheric ozone model outputs. There are likely to be diminishing returns in carrying out many more Monte Carlo runs in order to refine further these outputs. Uncertainties due to model formulation were separately addressed using the results from 14 Atmospheric Chemistry Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) chemistry-climate models. The 95% confidence ranges surrounding the ACCMIP model burdens and lifetimes for ozone, carbon monoxide and methane were somewhat smaller than for the Monte Carlo estimates. This reflected the situation where the ACCMIP models used harmonised emissions data and differed only in their meteorological data and model formulations whereas a conscious effort was made to describe the uncertainties in the ozone precursor emissions and in the kinetic and photochemical data in the Monte Carlo runs. Attention was focussed on the model predictions of the ozone seasonal cycles at three marine boundary layer stations: Mace Head, Ireland, Trinidad Head, California and Cape Grim, Tasmania. Despite comprehensively addressing the uncertainties due to global emissions and ozone sources and sinks, none of the Monte Carlo runs were able to generate seasonal cycles that matched the observations at all three MBL stations. Although the observed seasonal cycles were found to fall within the confidence limits of the ACCMIP members, this was because the model seasonal cycles spanned extremely wide ranges and there was no single ACCMIP member that performed best for each station. Further work is required to examine the parameterisation of convective mixing in the models to see if this erodes the isolation of the marine boundary layer from the free troposphere and thus hides the models’ real ability to reproduce ozone seasonal cycles over marine stations. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/82920
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: rdscientific, Newbury, Berkshire, United Kingdom; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States; Climate Research Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, AspendaleVictoria, Australia; Australia Centre for Atmospheric Chemistry, School of Chemistry, University of WollongongNew South Wales, Australia; School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom; Data Science Institute, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Derwent R,G,, Parrish D,et al. Uncertainties in models of tropospheric ozone based on Monte Carlo analysis: Tropospheric ozone burdens, atmospheric lifetimes and surface distributions[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2018-01-01,180