DOI: 10.1007/s10533-015-0149-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84948067357
论文题名: The importance of considering shifts in seasonal changes in discharges when predicting future phosphorus loads in streams
作者: LaBeau M. ; Mayer A. ; Griffis V. ; Watkins D. ; Robertson D. ; Gyawali R.
刊名: Biogeochemistry
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2015
卷: 126, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 153
结束页码: 172
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Phosphorous
; Watersheds
Scopus关键词: climate change
; concentration (composition)
; discharge
; phosphorus
; prediction
; seasonal variation
; streamflow
; watershed
; Great Lakes Basin
英文摘要: In this work, we hypothesize that phosphorus (P) concentrations in streams vary seasonally and with streamflow and that it is important to incorporate this variation when predicting changes in P loading associated with climate change. Our study area includes 14 watersheds with a range of land uses throughout the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. We develop annual seasonal load-discharge regression models for each watershed and apply these models with simulated discharges generated for future climate scenarios to simulate future P loading patterns for two periods: 2046–2065 and 2081–2100. We utilize output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 downscaled climate change projections that are input into the Large Basin Runoff Model to generate future discharge scenarios, which are in turn used as inputs to the seasonal P load regression models. In almost all cases, the seasonal load-discharge models match observed loads better than the annual models. Results using the seasonal models show that the concurrence of nonlinearity in the load-discharge model and changes in high discharges in the spring months leads to the most significant changes in P loading for selected tributaries under future climate projections. These results emphasize the importance of using seasonal models to understand the effects of future climate change on nutrient loads. © 2015, Springer International Publishing Switzerland. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83448
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Calumet Electronics, Calumet, MI, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI, United States; Wisconsin Water Science Center, United States Geological Survey, Middleton, WI, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin – Madison, Madison, WI, United States
Recommended Citation:
LaBeau M.,Mayer A.,Griffis V.,et al. The importance of considering shifts in seasonal changes in discharges when predicting future phosphorus loads in streams[J]. Biogeochemistry,2015-01-01,126(2018-01-02)