| DOI: | 10.1002/2015GL063608
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| 论文题名: | Recent slowdown of tropical upper tropospheric warming associated with Pacific climate variability |
| 作者: | Kamae Y.; Shiogama H.; Watanabe M.; Ishii M.; Ueda H.; Kimoto M.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8735
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| EISSN: | 1944-8466
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 42, 期:8 | | 起始页码: | 2995
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| 结束页码: | 3003
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | CMIP
; decadal variability
; MSU
; radiosonde
; tropospheric temperature
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Earth atmosphere
; Oceanography
; Radiosondes
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Troposphere
; Upper atmosphere
; Atmospheric general circulation models
; CMIP
; Coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation model
; Decadal variability
; Future climate projections
; MSU
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Tropospheric temperature
; Climate models
; climate forcing
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; general circulation model
; hiatus
; tropical environment
; troposphere
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Central)
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| 英文摘要: | Observed upper tropospheric temperature over the tropics (TTUT) shows a slowdown in warming rate during 1997-2011 despite the continuous warming projected by coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). This observation-model discord is an underlying issue regarding the reliability of future climate projections based on AOGCMs. To investigate the slowdown, we conducted ensemble historical simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by observed sea surface temperature both with and without anthropogenic influences. The historical AGCM run reproduced a muted TTUT change over the central Pacific (CP) found in multiple observations, while the multi-AOGCM mean did not. Recent tropical Pacific cooling, which is considered natural variability, contributes to the muted trend over the CP and the resultant slowdown of TTUT increase. The results of this study suggest that difficulties in simulating the recent "upper tropospheric warming hiatus" do not indicate low reliability of AOGCM-based future climate projections. ©2015. The Authors. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84929507661&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL063608&partnerID=40&md5=bc299d571a902751c33eb6d1bd05484a
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8351
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| Appears in Collections: | 科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Kamae Y.,Shiogama H.,Watanabe M.,et al. Recent slowdown of tropical upper tropospheric warming associated with Pacific climate variability[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(8).
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