DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2198-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85045477809
论文题名: A dual model for emulation of thermosteric and dynamic sea-level change
作者: Thomas M.A. ; Lin T.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
起始页码: 1
结束页码: 14
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Electric power system interconnection
; Uncertainty analysis
; General circulation model
; Global mean sea levels
; Linear response functions
; Model inter comparisons
; Non-linear response
; Projection uncertainty
; Regional sea level changes
; Thermosteric sea level
; Sea level
英文摘要: Future thermosteric and dynamic sea-level changes are often projected by process-based climate models. Emulation of such computationally expensive models helps enable model intercomparison over a range of forcing scenarios and thus enables additional analysis of sea-level rise projection uncertainty. Current emulation methods use linear response functions to estimate global mean sea-level response. Here, we introduce a novel dual model to emulate global mean thermosteric sea-level rise that incorporates short- and long-term responses to climate forcing. This nonlinear response function outperforms existing linear response functions over six illustrative general circulation models and the four representative concentration pathways. To emulate dynamic sea-level projections, we introduce a linear pattern scaling model that relates regional sea-level changes to global mean thermosteric sea-level rise. Pattern scaling is shown to reproduce strongly forced sea-level trends. Our results demonstrate effective emulation of global and regional sea-level rise, which can facilitate the consideration of sea-level rise projection uncertainty critical to the analysis of sea-level rise hazard. © 2018 Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83732
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Thomas M.A.,Lin T.. A dual model for emulation of thermosteric and dynamic sea-level change[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01