DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2161-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044526044
论文题名: Probabilistic assessment of projected climatological drought characteristics over the Southeast USA
作者: Mitra S. ; Srivastava P. ; Lamba J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 147, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 601
结束页码: 615
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Droughts
; GCM
; Kernel density estimator
; Probability-based SAF curves
; Southeast USA
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Drought
; Evapotranspiration
; Frequency estimation
; Risk assessment
; Risk perception
; Drought characteristics
; Global circulation model
; Kernel Density Estimation
; Kernel density estimators
; Precipitation patterns
; Probabilistic assessments
; Southeast USA
; Standard precipitation indices
; Climate change
英文摘要: The study makes a probabilistic assessment of drought risks due to climate change over the southeast USA based on 15 Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulations and two emission scenarios. The effects of climate change on drought characteristics such as drought intensity, frequency, areal extent, and duration are investigated using the seasonal and continuous standard precipitation index (SPI) and the standard evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The GCM data are divided into four time periods namely Historical (1961–1990), Near (2010–2039), Mid (2040–2069), and Late (2070–2099), and significant differences between historical and future time periods are quantified using the mapping model agreement technique. Further, the kernel density estimation approach is used to derive a novel probability-based severity-area-frequency (PBS) curve for the study domain. Analysis suggests that future increases in temperature and evapotranspiration will outstrip increases in precipitation and significantly affect future droughts over the study domain. Seasonal drought analysis suggest that the summer season will be impacted the most based on SPI and SPEI. Projections based on SPI follow precipitation patterns and fewer GCMs agree on SPI and the direction of change compared to the SPEI. Long-term and extreme drought events are projected to be affected more than short-term and moderate ones. Based on an analysis of PBS curves, especially based on SPEI, droughts are projected to become more severe in the future. The development of PBS curves is a novel feature in this study and will provide policymakers with important tools for analyzing future drought risks, vulnerabilities and help build drought resilience. The PBS curves can be replicated for studies around the world for drought assessment under climate change. © 2018, Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83743
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Civil Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Palakkad, Ahalia Integrated Campus, Kozhipara, Kerela, India; Biosystems Engineering, Auburn University, Tom E. Corley Building, Auburn, AL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mitra S.,Srivastava P.,Lamba J.. Probabilistic assessment of projected climatological drought characteristics over the Southeast USA[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,147(2018-03-04)