globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2170-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85043357652
论文题名:
Impacts of rainfall extremes on wheat yield in semi-arid cropping systems in eastern Australia
作者: Feng P.; Wang B.; Liu D.L.; Xing H.; Ji F.; Macadam I.; Ruan H.; Yu Q.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 147, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 555
结束页码: 569
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Crops ; Cultivation ; Decision trees ; Learning algorithms ; Learning systems ; Linear regression ; Regression analysis ; Climatic conditions ; Interannual variability ; Multiple linear regression models ; Multiple linear regressions ; Rainfall extremes ; Random forest modeling ; Robust predictions ; Standardized precipitation index ; Rain ; Triticum aestivum
英文摘要: Investigating the relationships between climate extremes and crop yield can help us understand how unfavourable climatic conditions affect crop production. In this study, two statistical models, multiple linear regression and random forest, were used to identify rainfall extremes indices affecting wheat yield in three different regions of the New South Wales wheat belt. The results show that the random forest model explained 41–67% of the year-to-year yield variation, whereas the multiple linear regression model explained 34–58%. In the two models, 3-month timescale standardized precipitation index of Jun.–Aug. (SPIJJA), Sep.–Nov. (SPISON), and consecutive dry days (CDDs) were identified as the three most important indices which can explain yield variability for most of the wheat belt. Our results indicated that the inter-annual variability of rainfall in winter and spring was largely responsible for wheat yield variation, and pre-growing season rainfall played a secondary role. Frequent shortages of rainfall posed a greater threat to crop growth than excessive rainfall in eastern Australia. We concluded that the comparison between multiple linear regression and machine learning algorithm proposed in the present study would be useful to provide robust prediction of yields and new insights of the effects of various rainfall extremes, when suitable climate and yield datasets are available. © 2018, Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83744
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, Sydney, NSW, Australia; NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, Queanbeyan, Australia; Agricultural College, Guangxi University, Nanning, Guangxi, China; State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Feng P.,Wang B.,Liu D.L.,et al. Impacts of rainfall extremes on wheat yield in semi-arid cropping systems in eastern Australia[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,147(2018-03-04)
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