globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2150-1
Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85042113430
An EPIC model-based wheat drought risk assessment using new climate scenarios in China
Author: Yue Y.; Wang L.; Li J.; Zhu A.-X.
Source Publication: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
Publishing Year: 2018
Volume: 147, Issue:2018-03-04
pages begin: 539
pages end: 553
Language: 英语
Scopus Keyword: Climate models ; Crops ; Drought ; Environmental protection ; Food supply ; Risk assessment ; Risk perception ; Adaptation strategies ; Climate change scenarios ; Climate scenarios ; Environmental policy integrated climate models ; Global food security ; Mitigation strategy ; Research interests ; Spatial patterns ; Climate change ; Triticum aestivum
English Abstract: There is considerable research interest in future agro-drought risk assessment, since the increasing severity of climate change-related hazards poses a great threat to global food security. Wheat is the most important staple crop in the world, and China’s wheat production has long been impacted by drought. The frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts may increase due to climate change and stressing the need for robust assessment methods for drought risk, as well as adaptation and mitigation strategies. This paper investigates a method for assessing future wheat drought risk using climate scenarios and a crop model. We illustrate the utility of such an approach by assessing the risk of wheat drought under climate change scenarios in China using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model. Results show that the risk level of wheat drought is highest under scenario RCP8.5, followed by RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP2.6, in descending order. If current climate change trends continue, wheat drought risk in China will be at risk levels between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. The wheat drought risk assessment shows a “low-risk, high-risk, low-risk” spatial pattern starting in the spring wheat-planting regions in northern China and progressing to the winter wheat-planting regions in southern China. Significant differences were observed across regions, but in all RCP scenarios, the relative high-risk zones are the Huang-Huai Winter Wheat Region and the North Winter Wheat Region. In addition, wheat drought risk mitigation and adaptation strategies in China are proposed. © 2018, Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature.
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Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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Affiliation: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application and School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China; Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States

Recommended Citation:
Yue Y.,Wang L.,Li J.,et al. An EPIC model-based wheat drought risk assessment using new climate scenarios in China[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,147(2018-03-04)
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